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South Asia: Program Brief - Regional Program for Hydromet Services and Resilience

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Economic and Social Impact of Disasters and Climate Risks in South Asia

South Asia is highly prone to weather and water related disasters such as flooding, drought, thunderstorms and cyclones. In the past two decades, over 50% of South Asians, that is, more than 750 million people have been affected by at least one natural disaster. The social and economic costs of such hazards have been staggering with almost 230,000 people dead and USD 45 billion in damages between 1970 and 2008. In India, direct losses from natural disasters constituted 2% of the country’s GDP and approximately 12% of central government revenue in 2003. Pakistan has suffered losses in the order of USD 16 billion since 2005 due to natural disasters. In Bhutan, damages related to the 2009 cyclone Aila were close to USD 17 million.

Transboundary Characteristics of Weather and Natural Hazards

In South Asia, weather patterns and climate risks are trans-boundary requiring a sub-regional or regional response. For instance, cyclones occurring in the Bay of Bengal affect a number of countries particularly Bangladesh and eastern coastal states of India. Between March and May, severe thunderstorms develop that commonly affect northeastern India, Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh. Though not as visible as tropical cyclones, they silently take their toll on livelihoods and property causing damages worth millions of dollars across the sub-region. The South Asian monsoon system delivers 70% to 80% of the rainfall to most South Asian countries. Seasonal changes in the timing, duration and variability of precipitation pose serious risks to key sectors such as agriculture and hydropower in a number of countries. The Indus, Ganga and the Brahmaputra, all of which are transboundary, provide a lifeline to over a billion people in the region. However, during the monsoon season, they carry large amounts of silt-laden runoff, contributing to flooding and extensive damage over large areas, often cross border in nature.

Productivity and Performance of Key Economic Sectors influenced by Weather, Water and Climate information Services

The performance of the region’s key economic sectors such as agriculture, aviation, water, urban infrastructure, fisheries, hydropower, and tourism depends upon weather information based services. However, users and communities have limited access to weather information products tailored to these sectors. For instance, in countries across the region, the weather dependent agriculture sector provides employment to a large section of the population. Yet, farmers typically do not have access to agro-weather advisories, bulletins or seasonal forecasts to support decision making at the farm level, thus impacting agricultural productivity. In Bhutan, home to one of the most dangerous airports in the world, aviation safety is compromised due to limited access to information about visibility and turbulence. Some of the most flood prone mega-cities are located in South Asia. Yet, urban infrastructure operators often do not receive early warnings about extreme events to efficiently manage urban drainage systems. Development of hydromet services can make a critical contribution in enhancing the performance of these weather dependent economic sectors and strengthening resilience of local communities. International experience suggests that for every dollar invested, the estimated benefits are in the range of two to ten US dollars.