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Angola

GIEWS Country Brief: Angola 30-April-2020

Attachments

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • Above-average cereal harvest forecast in 2020 reflecting favourable weather conditions

  • Food prices increased throughout 2019 and early 2020 underpinned by weak currency and tight supply situation

  • Poor food security conditions in southern provinces in early 2020 due to low household grain stocks and high food prices

Above-average cereal harvest forecast in 2020

Harvesting of the 2020 cereal crops is underway and is expected to conclude in June.
Since the start of the cropping season in October 2019, rainfall has been well distributed, with average amounts in the main producing central, eastern and northern provinces. In southern provinces, however, rainfall deficits were recorded in the last quarter of 2019. These early seasonal deficits were mostly offset by improved rainfall from January 2020 and, as of April, seasonal total amounts were near average.
Reflecting the generally conducive rains, remote sensing data indicate favourable vegetation conditions and a significant improvement compared to 2019, inferring to an upturn in yields.
Consequently, 2020 maize production is forecast at a near-average level of 2.3 million tonnes, about 15 percent above the low output in 2019.
The beneficial weather has also improved vegetation conditions in rangelands, mainly in the western and southern provinces, which were severely affected by drought in the previous year.
The improved pasture conditions are expected to support an increase in livestock production in 2020.

Above-average import requirements in 2019/20

On average, cereal imports cover an estimated 40 percent of the national consumption needs. In the 2019/20 marketing year (April/March), imports of cereals, mostly wheat, were estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, about 3 percent higher than the five-year average, mostly reflecting the reduced 2019 cereal harvest.
For the 2020/21 marketing year, cereal import requirements are estimated to remain near the five-year average level.
GIEWS global information and early warning system on food and agriculture

Cereal prices rose throughout 2019 and early 2020

Nominal retail prices of food have been increasing since early 2018, mainly reflecting a significant and sustained depreciation of the national currency. The low cereal harvest in 2019 has been an additional contributory factor to the high price levels.
Despite the ongoing harvest of the 2020 cereal crops, prices of maize flour were at record highs in March 2020 and 24 percent above their year-earlier values. Prices of cassava also continued to increase in 2020 and were 12 percent above their year-earlier values.

Poor food security conditions in southern provinces in early 2020

According to the latest Vulnerability Assessment Committee’s (VAC) evaluation, about 1.14 million people were estimated to be food insecure during the April 2019-March 2020 period. Most of the affected people were in the southern provinces of Cunene,
Huila, Namibe and Cuando Cubango, reflecting the effects of the well below-average harvests in 2019 and high prices of food staples.
Looking further ahead, despite an expected above-average harvest in 2020 that would improve food availability and ease access constraints to food, the risks posed by the COVID-19 pandemic could cause an increase in the prevalence of malnutrition. The effects of the pandemic are expected to be primarily channeled through a reduction in economic activities and associated income losses, with compounding effects of a further depreciation of the national currency and the plummeting prices of oil, which is the main foreign exchange earner of the country. Furthermore, potential breakdowns in the food supply chains represent additional concerns for food security across the country.