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Today's Market View - Condor Gold and more...

Published: 11:33 17 Aug 2022 BST

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SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 17 08 22

Lithium prices climb on reports for production rationing amid drought and heatwave in China

 

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below 

 

Culpeo Minerals* (CPO:AU) – Phase-1 drill programme complete at Lana Corina

Condor Gold* (CNR:LN) – Revised mineral resources estimate for La India

Gem Diamonds (GEMD:LN) – Russian sanctions squeeze rough diamond supply

Kenmare Resources (KMR:LN) – Interim results highlight record prices through first half raising dividend despite challenging start to year

Rockfire Resources (ROCK:LN) – Exploration of the Molaoi zinc project

Serabi Gold (AIM:SRB, TSX:SBI)* (SRB:LN) – Palito production recovers in Q2 as Coringa progresses and exploration identifies porphyry mineralisation near Sao Chico

 

China sets 2nd rare earth mining quota at 109,200 tonnes

  • China set the first batch of its 2022 rare earth mining output quota to 100,800 tonnes.
  • This is 30% higher than the 74,000t quota for mining in the second half of last year.
  • Full year quota at 210,000t vs 168,000t last year.

 

LME suspends Russian nickel from UK warehouses, while trade volumes remain low

  • The LME has banned Russian nickel from its approved warehouses in Britain unless it was exported before July 20.
  • The move follows a decision on April 1 to ban other Russian metals including copper, lead, primary aluminium and aluminium alloy from British warehouses.
  • Nickel trading on the LME remains very thin, with volumes 40% lower in July as participants continue to shun the market following the cancelling of trades.
  • The LME cancelled billions of dollars in trades on March 8 after prices spiked by more than 50% in a matter of hours – protecting a market participant known as Big Shot.

UK and US sign MoU to support battery development and recycling

  • The UK’s Faraday Institution and the US Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to support projects looking to develop new batteries and methods for recycling materials used in EVs.
  • The partnership will also look to establish a sustainable supply chain for critical battery materials.
  • The MoU was signed at the Royal Institution during the first in a series of US-UK workshops on electrochemical energy storage by the institutes.
  • The partnership has identified areas of mutual interest in areas of key battery research, such as reducing reliance on critical materials in cathodes and to ensure recyclability of batteries.
  •  

Dow Jones Industrials +0.71% at 34,152

Nikkei 225 +1.23% at 29,223

HK Hang Seng +0.57% at 19,943

Shanghai Composite +0.45% at 3,293

  

Economics

US – Housing starts fell in July to the lowest rate since early 2021 amid rising mortgage rates.

  • Construction sentiment continued to deteriorate with the outlook sliding for eight straight months in August marking the worst run since 2007.
  • Housing Starts (%mom): -9.6 v -2.0 in June and -2.1 est.
  •  

China - Sichuan province to shut plants or pullback production amid drought and worst heatwave in 60 years (Reuters)

Sichuan is home to ~85m people and relies on hydropower to generate 80% of its power orders producers of lithium, fertilisers and other metals.

  • The heatwave has cut water levels in the Yangtze River to the lowest on record for this time of the year
  • Sichuan also exports power to other provinces
  • Toyota that is operating a 30k autos per annum in the provincial capital of Chengdu said authorities asked to suspend its operations through August 20.
  • CATL halted its activity at its major lithium battery base in Yibin through the same date.
  • CATL has around 10GW if existing and planned capacity in the province, the most after Fujian.
  • There is a chance that should the heatwave persist the power crunch may spill over to eastern provinces like Zhejiang (~60m population) and Jiangsu (~80m) that sources a share of its power consumption from Sichuan.

Sichuan province orders factories to shut to preserve power

  • China’s Sichuan province has ordered companies using electricity for industrial purposes to suspend production from 00:00 on August 15th to 24:00 on August 20th to protect the supply of electricity for residents.
  • The country is facing its worst heatwave in 60 years and a spike in demand for air conditioning in offices and homes is putting pressure on the power grid.
  • Sichuan generates a large portion of its power from hydropower plants – average rainfall has fallen by 51% in the same period from the last few years and the drought has meant that power production has reduced.
  • The province's top officials warned Monday that Sichuan is currently facing the "most severe and extreme moment" in power supply.

Shanxi province suspends more than 100 mines on flood alerts and warns that the list may be expanded.

  • The region that is a major coal supplier accounting for a quarter of the nation’s coal with suspensions coming at the time of high demand and as high temperatures in other regions limit hydropower generation.
  • The nation’s coal consumption for the first two weeks of August increased 15%yoy due to extreme weather hitting a new record August 3.

 

Japan – Trade deficit hit a record high in July as imports soared amid soaring energy costs and a yen hit a 24-year low.

  • The trade deficit has been growing for 14 months now marking the longest continuous streak since 2015.
  • Interestingly, volume wise both exports and imports were little changed with the change coming from the impact of inflation.
  • Exports (%yoy): 19.0 v 19.4 in June and 17.6 est.
  • Imports (%yoy): 47.2 v 46.1 in June and 45.5 est.

 

UK – Consumer inflation crossed the 10% mark hitting the highest level since early 1980s adding to further pressures on consumers spending, Reuters reports.

  • Inflation climbed more than expected and will do little to ease the central bank’s concerns that price pressures may become entrenched.
  • The central bank expects to peak at 13.3% in October when regulated household energy bills are expected to rise.
  • Investors are pricing in another 50bp hike to 2.25% in September, Bloomberg commented on the data.
  • Rising food prices made the biggest contribution to the monthly increase coming on top of higher energy costs.
  • The pound briefly jumped against the US$ on results but since has given up its gains and is trading little changed from pre announcement levels.
  • CPI (%yoy): 10.1 v 9.4 in June and 9.8 est.
  • Core CPI (%yoy): 6.2 v 5.8 in June and 5.9 est.

 

UK Housebuilding – House sales continue to offset build-cost inflation in the construction industry despite issues relating to labour and materials such as steel and concrete.

  • Persimmon Homes (mkt cap £6bn) plans to build as many houses in 2022 as in 2021 despite a fall in completions in the first half. (The Times)
  • Strong demand for its homes has resulted in faster sales at developments than in previous years
  • Higher sales prices limited the fall in sales and profits to just 8% for the first half.
  • Underlying demand is reported as robust for new homes with 130 new developments opening this year.
  • The group blames increasing complexity in the planning system which has stalled around 120,000 new homes  would open more new developments and blames

 

Inflation – 80% of investors expect inflation to fall over the next 12 months according to BoA survey (The Times)

  • Construction is the most bearish sector while optimism on healthcare has cooled despite ongoing covid concerns
  • 67% of the 284 investors surveyed managing $836bn of assets reckon Europe will weaken from a record 79% a month earlier.
  • 58% of investors reckoned recession was likely with the Chinese economy and global property as risks to global debt markets.
  • Fund managers now expect growth stocks to outperform with 88% expecting inflation to recede over the next 12 months.

 

Currencies

US$1.0159/eur vs 1.0241/eur yesterday. Yen 134.77/$ vs 133.49/$.  SAr 16.432/$ vs 16.304/$.  $1.209/gbp vs $1.210/gbp. 0.699/aud vs 0.707/aud.  CNY 6.776/$ vs 6.766/$.

US Dollar index – 106.67 / +0.16% on week

Commodity News

 

Precious metals:         

Gold US$1,776/oz vs US$1,778/oz yesterday

   Gold ETFs 100.6moz vs US$100.7moz yesterday

Platinum US$935/oz vs US$928/oz yesterday

Palladium US$2,153/oz vs US$2,130/oz yesterday

Silver US$20.10/oz vs US$20.12/oz yesterday

Rhodium US$14,650/oz vs US$14,800/oz yesterday

 

Base metals:   

Copper US$ 7,999/t vs US$7,988/t yesterday

Aluminium US$ 2,430/t vs US$2,413/t yesterday

Nickel US$ 22,385/t vs US$22,013/t yesterday

Zinc US$ 3,634/t vs US$3,599/t yesterday

Lead US$ 2,154/t vs US$2,166/t yesterday

Tin US$ 24,770/t vs US$24,750/t yesterday

 

Energy:

Oil US$92.9/bbl vs US$94.2/bbl yesterday

Natural Gas US$9.398/mmbtu vs US$8.970/mmbtu yesterday

Uranium UXC US$48.55/lb vs US$48.55/lb yesterday

         

Bulk:   

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$105.6/t vs US$105.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$626.1/t vs US$625.4/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$300.0/t vs US$261.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$245.0/t vs US$242.0/t

 

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$46,955/t vs US$47,445/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$109,212/t vs US$109,631/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$68,553/t vs US$68,354/t

China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$4,720/t vs US$4,720/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,245/t vs US$1,242/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$333/t vs US$333/t

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$815/t vs US$815/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 7.4/lb vs US$7.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 33.25/kg vs US$33.25/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$351/t vs US$349/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$91.5/t vs US$90.5/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$930.0/t vs US$930.0/t

 

Battery News

Chinese battery maker EVE to supply BMW

  • China's EVE Energy Co will supply BMW with large cylindrical batteries for its EVs in Europe according to sources with knowledge of the matter. (Reuters)
  • EVE has signed contracts to be BMW's primary supplier of the battery cells in Europe for EVs due to hit the market in 2025, said one of the people who has direct knowledge of the deal.
  • The move follows Tesla who began manufacturing their 4680 cylindrical batteries earlier this year.
  • Guangdong-based EVE's batteries will be similar in size, said the sources, who were not authorised to speak to media and declined to be identified.
  • Company filings also show EVE is planning a large cylindrical battery plant in central China.

 

Company News

Culpeo Minerals* (CPO AU) A$0.165, Mkt cap A$9.6m – Phase-1 drill programme complete at Lana Corina

  • Culpeo Minerals has released the final set of results from its Phase-1 drill programme at its Lana Corina Project in Chile.
  • The final hole to be drilled, CMLCD009, intersected copper mineralisation including:
    • 113m @ 0.60% Cu and 122ppm Mo from 331m
    • 19m @ 0.75% Cu and 110ppm Mo from 331m
    • 11m @ 0.83% Cu and 197ppm Mo from 405m
  • Phase-1 drilling has defined copper mineralisation through 7 holes intercepting significant copper and molybdenum mineralisation, with highlights including:
    • CMLCD002 - 257m @ 0.95% Cu, 81ppm Mo from 170m
    • CMLCD003 - 173m @ 1.05% Cu, 50ppm Mo from 313m
    • CMLCD005 - 81m @ 1.06% Cu, 145ppm Mo from 302m
  • Culpeo comment that mineralisation encountered in the drillholes to date is associated with shallow high-grade breccia hosted mineralisation near surface and deeper high-grade porphyry hosted mineralisation at depth.
  • Mineralisation is open to the northwest and at depth to the south, with both to be tested in the upcoming Phase-2 programme which is currently being planned.

*An analyst at SP Angel holds shares in Culpeo Minerals

 

Condor Gold* (CNR LN) 24.75p, Mkt Cap £37.3m – Revised mineral resources estimate for La India

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  • Condor Gold has issued an updated mineral resources estimate for it La India project in Nicaragua incorporating a further 59 drill holes (3,413m) within the open-pit area.
  • The new estimate, which was prepared by SRK using a gold price of US$1,800/oz, details 9.67mt classed as ‘indicated’ under Canada’s CIM Code at an average grade of 3.5g/t gold (1.088moz) plus an additional ‘inferred’ resource of 8.64mt at an average grade of 4.3g/t gold (1.19moz).
  • Over half, 1.34 oz, of the total 2.3moz resource reported today is hosted in the La India vein set, where a resource grade of 3.4g/t improves slightly on the 3.2g/t reported in earlier estimates, with a further 460,000oz at America.  The Mestiza Veins represent a further 310,000oz at a grade of 6.3g/t gold with the balance located at the Central Breccia, Cacao and San Lucas deposits.
  • The company explains that estimates for the satellite pits at Mestiza, America and the Central Breccia zone “have not been updated as no new work has been completed since the previous January 2019 estimate”.
  • Chairman and Chief Executive, Mark Child, emphasised that the new estimate is “much more robust and conversative” than its predecessor and said that it had expanded the potential of the “6 separate deposits” at La India and that the resource definition work had focussed on “strengthening the confidence of the geological model ahead of a forthcoming Feasibility Study on La India Open Pit”.
  • The 15 new diamond drill holes (3,504m) sited on the Cacao Vein, approximately 6km east of La India, which were drilled to “test the geological concept that the near surface gold mineralisation at Cacao marks the top of an epithermal gold system, and to test for a strike extension beyond the 450 m long outcrop where previous drilling has been focused” have been included to help expand the inferred resource by 69% to 1.16mt at an average grade of 2.5g/t gold (101,000oz).
  • Mr. Child welcomed the resource expansion at Cacao and said that the current geological “interpretation is that drilling has clipped the top of a fully preserved epithermal vein system with a strike length of at least 1km”.  The majority of the increased resource at Cacao is attributed to the part of the resource amenable to underground mining which increased “by 40 koz to 86 koz … demonstrating the potential growth of the underground Mineral Resource on the Cacao vein”.
  • We understand that the Cacao Vein is located beneath alluvial cover within a down-faulted block of ground south of the ‘Highway Fault’ which supports the theory of a substantially intact epithermal vein which, as we described in our February 2022 research report, may connect “beneath the alluvium to known mineralisation at Santa Barbara approximately 4 km to the east”.
  • Today’s announcement describes a number of refinements to the geological interpretation of La India to account for a “slight reduction of 4.7% in the Indicated and 0.9% in the Inferred Mineral Resources compared to the previous MRE” including,
    • “steepening of the veins near surface on La India deposit”; as well as
    • The use of “slightly lower density values in some zones of La India deposit based on additional data”; and
    • Updates to interpreted depletion arising from earlier mining activity; and
    • “an increase in the reporting cut-off from 0.5 g/t Au to 0.65 g/t Au for the open pit resources, and from 1.5 g/t Au to 2.0g/t Au along with the application of crown pillars (as depletion) to reflect assumed underground mining on several historical estimates”
  • We observe that in both the current and previous estimate, the ‘indicated’ portion represents around 53% of the total resource and, in our view, the improved understanding of the geometry and physical characteristics of the mineralisation enhances the opportunity to contain mine development risks and deliver a smooth transition to production.
  • We also note the inclusion of an inferred resource of almost 300,000t at a grade of 5.9g/t gold at the San Lucas deposit which does not appear to feature specifically in earlier estimates and highlights the continuing resource expansion potential of the immediate La India area.

Conclusion: The revised mineral resources estimate provides a secure foundation for the continuing feasibility work at La India where it is encouraging to see a modestly higher grade than seen in the earlier estimates as more detailed drilling appears to be picking up localised enrichment.  The expansion of resources on the Cacao Vein and the inclusion of a modest initial higher-grade resource at San Lucas both point to the remaining exploration opportunities within the immediate area to be served by the La India plant.  We anticipate the forthcoming Feasibility study with interest.

*SP Angel act as a broker to Condor Gold

 

Gem Diamonds (GEMD:LN) 41p, Mkt Cap £67m – Russian sanctions squeeze rough diamond supply

  • Gem Diamonds reports the sale of 57,075 carats of diamonds during the six months ending 30th June generating US$99.6m revenue at an average sales price of US$1,745/ carat (H2 -2021 – 54,573 carats generating US$97.3m at US$1,783/carat).
  • The Letšeng mine sold 15 individual diamonds fro in excess of US$1m generating revenue of US$25.8m and including “Three diamonds greater than 100 carats (244.34, 127.58 and 124.65 carats) were recovered during the Period, which were sold in the first tender after Period end for US$13.9 million”.
  • The company confirms that “sanctions imposed on the Russian diamond producer Alrosa have exacerbated a shortage of rough diamonds in the market, supporting continued strong demand and robust prices for Letšeng's high-quality rough diamonds”.
  • Gem Diamonds says that during H1 “Letšeng experienced excessive rain, increased power disruptions on the energy supply network and negative impacts on the supply of critical parts and spares of equipment which impacted production” but that it expects its production guidance for 2022 “to be achieved, albeit at the lower end of original guidance published in March 2022” which envisaged recovering between 112-116,000 carats.
  • The company does, however, say that “disruptions to the supply chain, combined with significant increases in fuel, explosives and other consumables prices were experienced in the Period, exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine” and that consequently it is revising its cost guidance upwards with direct cash costs expected to increase to the range US$250-270/tonne treated from the previous expectation of US$220-230/t with similar increases in operating costs and waste removal cost guidance and a reduction in capital cost guidance from the previous US$25-30m range to US$19-23m.

Conclusion: Cost inflationary pressures are prompting increases to Gem Diamonds’ 2022 cost guidance and reducing its capital cost expectations although at this stage it expects to meet existing production guidance of 112-116,000 carats.  The company highlights the impact of sanctions against Russia’s Alrosa in exacerbating shortages of rough diamond supply.

 

Kenmare Resources (KMR:LN) 468p, Mkt Cap £438m – Interim results highlight record prices through first half raising dividend despite challenging start to year

  • Kenmare Resources report a 51% increase in their interim dividend to US$10.98c/s in line with their 25% payout ratio.
  • Debt by a further $17.3m to $65.5m.
  • Production fell 8% to 738,300t of HMC vs 798,500t yoy on a 7% fall in ore grades, 2% reduction in excavated ore tonnes and higher slimes levels hit output.
  • Total finished product production fell 10% to 550,700t vs 612,100t yoy as a result of a 9% fall in the HMC material processed
  • Shipments fell 29% to 424,300t vs 594,100t due to poorer weather and reduced shipping capacity due to transshipment maintenance
  • Sales rose 9% to $182m vs $168m yoy on higher Ilmenite, rutile and zircon prices offsetting lower shipment volumes
  • EBITDA of rose 28% to $106m vs $82m
  • Post tax profit rose 30% to $63m from $48m
  • The average price received rose 52% to $429/t from $282/t yoy on an FOB equivalent basis
  • Cash operating costs rose 29% to $184/t vs $143/t due to lower production volumes and cost inflation
  • Cash operating cost per tonne of ilmenite (net of co-products) rose 7% to $105/t vs $113/t on a strong contribution from co-product sales.
  • Strong market conditions are reported to continue with robust demand through Q3 supported by low global inventories.
  • We believe inventory levels in China remain at low levels due to previous disruption to imports as a result of Covid lockdowns and high shipping/port demurrage charges

Conclusion:  Kenmare’s results statement is positive for other ilmenite, rutile and zircon producers. We expect the second half to improve on H1

 

Rockfire Resources (ROCK:LN) 0.36p, Mkt Cap £3.9m – Exploration of the Molaoi zinc project

  • Rockfire Resources confirms that geological mapping and sampling is underway at the Molaoi zinc project in Greece which it acquired in May.
  • The company says that “Planned diamond drilling will target the expansion of the maiden JORC resource of 2.3 million tonnes @ 11 % ZnEq. (250,000 tonnes zinc equivalent)” and that it has submitted its technical and environmental; programmes for the drilling has been submitted to the Greek authorities for approval prior to drilling.
  • Rockfire Resources says that preliminary metallurgical tests, “in progress in Perth, Australia” have shown “promising” initial results.
  • CEO, David Price, said that “exploration has officially commenced with rock sampling and geological mapping and the team in Greece has been bolstered with the addition of a Greek geologist who is undertaking the rock sampling programme. Our new geologist has prior practical experience with VMS deposits, specifically in Cyprus”.

 

Serabi Gold* (SRB:LN) 43p, Mkt Cap £32m – Palito production recovers in Q2 as Coringa progresses and exploration identifies porphyry mineralisation near Sao Chico

  • Serabi Gold reports that following production of 2,703oz of gold during July, it remains on track to achieve its 30,000oz production guidance for 2022.
  • Production at Serabi’s Palito operations in Brazil during the six-months to 30th June totalled 15,480oz with an additional 2,462oz during July reported today .
  • The July total includes 241oz from the developing project at Coringa where the company reports that on-lode development has now reached 494m and that channel sampling is delivering high grade assay results including:
    • 0.63m at an average grade of 108.34g/t gold on the V1N vein at the 320m level; and
    • Another sample of 0.63m averaging 93.8g/t gold on the V3S Vein also at the 320m level; and
    • 0.94m at an average grade of 57.94g/t gold on the V3N vein at the 320m level; and
    • 0.32m at an average grade of 179.00g/t gold on the V3S vein at the 340m level; and
    • 0.25m at an average grade of 302.37g/t gold on the V3S vein also at the 340m level
  • The company confirms the progress at Coringa where it continues with geological mapping and sampling and CEO, Mike Hodgson said that Serabi Gold “will be preparing the mine for initial stoping over the coming months. This will enable us to increase our production rate and continue to minimise dilution”.

Conclusion: Serabi remains on course to meet its 2022 gold production guidance of 30,000oz. Development results from Coringa show narrow high grade mineralisation on at least two levels and two separate veins with the company indicating that it expects to move to initial stoping operations over the next few months.

*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil

 

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

 

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0486

 

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

 

 

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

 

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

 

Sources of commodity prices

Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver - BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)

Gold ETFs, Steel - Bloomberg

Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt - LME

Oil Brent - ICE

Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore - NYMEX

Thermal Coal - Bloomberg OTC Composite

Coking Coal - SSY

RRE - Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite - Asian Metal

 

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