| Climate change is not merely a passing challenge facing our world; it is an all-encompassing crisis that impacts every aspect of life, casting a particular shadow over the Middle East and North Africa. Its impacts go beyond rising temperatures, extending to agriculture and food security, with the most vulnerable populations bearing the brunt of this serious threat. |
Agriculture and Food Under Climate Change Threats
Today, agricultural and food systems are bearing the brunt of a harsh climatic reality, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent and intense. According to the State of the Global Climate report, these events have contributed to a dramatic rise in the number of people facing acute food insecurity worldwide, with the figures climbing from 149 million before the COVID-19 pandemic to 333 million in 2023.
Between 2007 and 2022, the agricultural sector, which serves as a lifeline for millions of people, accounted for approximately 23% of total losses from natural disasters. Droughts alone represented 65% of these losses, resulting in a significant decline in agricultural production and livestock losses totaling $3.8 trillion over the past three decades.
MENA Region at the Center of Agricultural and Food Security Risks
Although countries of our region contribute less than 5% of global carbon emissions, they bear the heaviest burden of climate change’s consequences. With temperatures rising twice as fast as the global average and water scarcity making the region one of the driest in the world, food and agricultural security are increasingly at risk in a region that relies heavily on agriculture to meet its food needs and sustain the livelihoods of its population.
North Africa: A Water Crisis Threatening Crops
Morocco and Algeria are grappling with unprecedented droughts that pose a direct threat to food security. The World Meteorological Organization has warned of continuing declines in rainfall and worsening water scarcity, which have led to significant reductions in agricultural production and widespread crop damage.
In 2023, Morocco saw a 28% drop in rainfall, resulting in a 20% decrease in agricultural output. Tunisia’s cereal sector was hit hardest, with production plummeting by 80%, while Algeria experienced a 12% decline in cereal harvests. The World Meteorological Organization has described the situation as a looming “historic” crisis, predicting that, 118 million Africans will be at risk of droughts and flooding by 2030.
Nile Delta: Egypt’s Agricultural Heartland at Risk
Egypt’s agricultural sector, which contributes 12% to the national GDP, is facing a direct threat from climate change. The Nile Delta, the agricultural heartland of the country, is at risk of saltwater intrusion and rising sea levels, endangering its fertile lands and increasing the likelihood of declining agricultural output in the coming years.
The intrusion of saltwater into the Nile Delta is driven by several key factors, most notably sea-level rise caused by climate change and the excessive extraction of groundwater. Additionally, water pollution and urban expansion are contributing to soil degradation and the spread of salinity. Furthermore, inappropriate irrigation practices and shifting rainfall patterns are exacerbating the problem.
As a result, strategic crops such as wheat, mangoes, soybeans, and olives have experienced significant declines, further undermining Egypt’s food security.
Jordan: Water Stress Deepens the Crisis
Jordan ranks among the world’s most water-stressed countries due to its limited water resources and growing demand driven by rapid population growth, expanding industrial and agricultural activities, and the escalating impacts of climate change. These challenges pose significant threats to the agricultural sector, which indirectly contributes 25% of the country’s GDP. According to a UNICEF supported report by Economist Impact, water scarcity could reduce agricultural productivity by 1.2% annually by 2030, costing Jordan’s economy up to $29 million each year. Furthermore, World Bank estimates suggest that declining water availability and climate change could shrink Jordan’s GDP by 6.8%, amounting to losses of $2.6 billion.
The water crisis is further exacerbating food insecurity, with 56% of Jordanians and 89% of refugees experiencing or being at risk of food insecurity. Meanwhile, malnutrition rates have doubled since the mid-2000s, intensifying the crisis.
Iraq: The Fifth Most Vulnerable Country to Climate Change
Iraq ranks as the fifth most vulnerable country globally to climate change, facing a profound, multidimensional crisis fueled by rising temperatures, decreasing rainfall, worsening droughts, poor water management, and dwindling water supplies from upstream countries. These factors have led to the collapse of Iraq’s water resources. Since 2003, Iraq has struggled with severe water shortages and, according to the Ministry of Water Resources, will lose around 53 billion cubic meters of water reserves by 2019.
United Nations data reveals that 90% of Iraq’s rivers are polluted, and by 2035, the country’s water resources are expected to meet only 15% of its needs. According to Iraq’s Statistics Authority, the country has lost 61% of its irrigated agricultural land in the past decade. Desertification has halved Iraq’s farmland, with 10,000 hectares lost annually, according to the Ministries of Agriculture and Environment. These harsh conditions have forced one in two Iraqi families to reduce their cultivated land or cut water consumption, as reported by the Norwegian Refugee Council, further intensifying the food crisis that threatens Iraq’s stability and future.
Climate change is not merely an environmental crisis; it is an existential threat that undermines every aspect of human security and amplifies all forms of injustice. Declining food production, rising poverty, and worsening hunger are just glimpses of a crisis that grows more severe with each passing day if urgent action is not taken. Projections indicate that declining crop yields, particularly in the most vulnerable regions, could push over 43 million people in Africa alone could fall below the poverty line by 2030.
The solutions are within reach but require collective commitment and decisive political will at both local and global levels. Adopting climate-resilient agricultural practices, improving water resource management, and strengthening climate policies are essential steps that cannot be delayed. These actions are not optional—they are an urgent necessity to save millions of lives and ensure a more equitable and sustainable future for all.
