Over the past decade, China has solidified its position as the world’s largest exporter of goods and made significant strides in the global services export sector. The changing composition of its exports, marked by a shift toward high-tech products and services, as well as adjustments in its trade relations amid geopolitical tensions, provides a clear picture of the evolving dynamics of China’s role in global trade. This article examines the direction of China’s goods and services exports over the last 10 years, supported by the most recent data, and analyses their share in global exports, with a focus on the growing economic relationship between China and India.
The Rise of High-Value Goods and Technological Exports
China’s goods exports have seen substantial growth over the past decade, with a marked shift from low-value manufacturing to more advanced technological products. The rise of high-tech industries such as electronics, telecommunications, and electric vehicles reflects China’s efforts to transition from being a low-cost manufacturing hub to a global leader in innovation.
Overall Goods Exports: In 2023, China’s total goods exports reached $3.73 trillion, up from $2.2 trillion in 2013, representing a growth of more than 60% over the past decade. As a result, China’s share of global merchandise exports has risen from approximately 12.8% in 2013 to around 15.4% in 2023, according to the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
Electronics Exports: China’s electronic goods exports continue to dominate. In 2023, China exported over $1.4 trillion in electrical machinery and electronics, accounting for nearly 38% of its total goods exports. This includes products like smartphones, computers, and telecommunications equipment, which now make up a substantial share of global electronics exports. China remains the leading global exporter of smartphones, with 2023 exports valued at $170 billion.
Automotive and Electric Vehicles: China’s automotive sector, particularly electric vehicles (EVs), has seen impressive growth. In 2022, China became the world’s largest exporter of EVs, surpassing Germany and Japan. By 2023, the value of China’s electric vehicle exports had reached $18 billion, with a 23% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand in Europe and emerging markets.
High-Tech Products: China has also made strides in the export of high-tech products. In 2023, the export of computers and related equipment reached $400 billion, a substantial increase from $200 billion in 2013. China’s rise as a global leader in 5G technology has further solidified its position in the global tech market, with exports of 5G equipment exceeding $80 billion in 2023.
Despite the increased focus on high-value goods, China continues to export lower-value items such as textiles and machinery, though their share in the total export portfolio has decreased as more advanced sectors take center stage.
The Growing Role of Services Exports
In addition to goods, China’s services exports have experienced rapid growth, particularly in digital services, e-commerce, and education. The country’s increasing ability to export services is a result of its expanding digital economy, the rise of global Chinese tech companies, and the growing influence of Chinese cultural products.
By 2023, China’s trade with BRI nations accounted for over $1.4 trillion, representing 40% of its total trade volume
Services Exports Growth: In 2022, China’s total services exports reached $290 billion, up from $143 billion in 2013, marking a growth of 102% over the decade. As a result, China’s share of global services exports increased from 4.1% in 2013 to approximately 6.6% in 2022, according to the WTO.
Digital Services and E-commerce: China’s services exports are increasingly dominated by digital services, including software, e-commerce, and online entertainment. In 2023, China’s export of digital services, including cloud computing, mobile apps, and gaming, surpassed $100 billion, up from $22 billion in 2013. Platforms like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu have expanded their reach globally, contributing to this growth. For instance, in 2023, China’s e-commerce exports, particularly through platforms like AliExpress, reached $80 billion.
Tourism and Education Services: Although outbound tourism was severely impacted by the pandemic, China remains a major exporter of tourism services. In 2023, Chinese outbound tourism expenditure reached $105 billion, nearly recovering to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, China continues to attract a significant number of international students. By 2023, China hosted over 550,000 international students, making it one of the largest destinations for global students, further contributing to its services export growth.
Cultural Exports: China’s soft power through cultural exports has also expanded, with Chinese films, literature, and online content seeing significant international attention. In 2022, the global box office revenue for Chinese films surpassed $10 billion, reflecting China’s growing cultural influence.
Changing Export Markets and Trade Tensions
While China has succeeded in diversifying its export products, one of the most notable trends of the last decade has been the diversification of its export markets. Although China remains heavily reliant on traditional markets such as the United States and Europe, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has played a key role in strengthening trade ties with emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Shifts in Export Markets: In 2023, China’s exports to the United States accounted for 15.5% of total exports, down from over 20% in 2018, reflecting the ongoing trade tensions and the trade war initiated in 2018. Conversely, China’s trade with ASEAN countries, which has been bolstered by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), has grown significantly. In 2023, trade with ASEAN reached $900 billion, making ASEAN China’s largest trading partner.
Belt and Road Initiative: The BRI has significantly boosted China’s trade with participating countries. By 2023, China’s trade with BRI nations accounted for over $1.4 trillion, representing 40% of its total trade volume. China has deepened its economic relationships with countries in Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America, expanding its role in infrastructure development, natural resources, and manufacturing exports.
Geopolitical Diversification: As a result of tensions with the U.S., many Chinese manufacturers have shifted production to other Asian countries, particularly Vietnam, India, and Malaysia. In 2023, Vietnam saw a 25% increase in exports to the U.S., much of it consisting of goods originally manufactured in China. Additionally, Latin America has become a growing market for China’s exports, with trade between China and Latin American countries surpassing $200 billion in 2023.
China-India Trade: A Growing Economic Partnership
China and India, two of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies, have increasingly become important trade partners in recent years. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, the economic relationship between the two countries has expanded rapidly, with trade between them reaching new heights. China has emerged as India’s largest trading partner, and India is one of China’s largest export markets in South Asia.
The pandemic also accelerated the global shift toward digital services and e-commerce, sectors where China was already a global leader. In 2023, China’s export of e-commerce goods surpassed $90 billion
Trade Volume: In 2023, bilateral trade between China and India surpassed $135 billion, making China India’s largest trading partner. This marked a significant increase from $70 billion in 2013, reflecting a growth rate of nearly 90% over the past decade. The increase in trade is a result of the growing demand for Chinese goods in India, particularly in sectors like electronics, machinery, and chemicals.
Trade Composition: While India exports raw materials and agricultural products to China, such as iron ore, cotton, and mineral fuels, China exports primarily high-tech goods and machinery to India. In 2023, China’s exports to India were valued at approximately $90 billion, primarily driven by electronics, machinery, and telecommunications equipment. India’s exports to China, while growing, were valued at around $45 billion, with raw materials like iron ore and copper playing a central role.
Challenges and Opportunities: Despite the positive trade growth, the trade balance has heavily favored China, leading to concerns in India about the growing trade deficit. As of 2023, India’s trade deficit with China stood at approximately $45 billion, sparking debates about the long-term sustainability of the trade relationship. However, there is potential for further collaboration, particularly in areas like infrastructure, renewable energy, and technology. India’s rapidly growing consumer market offers opportunities for Chinese companies, especially in sectors like e-commerce and digital services.
The Impact of COVID-19 and Recovery
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted global trade, but China’s export performance showed remarkable resilience. While early months in 2020 saw disruptions in production and supply chains, China quickly adapted to the changing landscape. The pandemic underscored China’s pivotal role in the global economy, particularly in sectors like electronics, medical goods, and e-commerce.
Exports During the Pandemic: In 2020, amid the pandemic, China’s exports grew by 3.6%, reaching a total of $2.6 trillion in goods. This was driven by strong demand for medical supplies, electronics, and home entertainment products. The recovery was rapid, and by 2023, China’s total exports of goods had reached $3.73 trillion, reflecting a sharp rebound and sustained demand for products like electronics and medical goods.
Medical Supplies Exports: China became the global supplier of medical goods during the pandemic. Exports of medical supplies, including face masks, PPE, and test kits, surged to $153 billion in 2020, compared to just $31 billion in 2019. While demand for medical supplies has decreased, this sector still accounts for a significant portion of China’s exports, with total exports of medical goods exceeding $75 billion in 2023.
E-commerce and Digital Services: The pandemic also accelerated the global shift toward digital services and e-commerce, sectors where China was already a global leader. In 2023, China’s export of e-commerce goods surpassed $90 billion, with platforms like Alibaba’s AliExpress and JD.com expanding rapidly into global markets.
Conclusion
Over the last decade, China’s export landscape has evolved significantly, transitioning from a focus on low-value manufacturing to high-tech goods and digital services. The country’s increasing share of global exports in both goods and services reflects its growing economic influence. In 2023, China’s share of global goods exports stood at 15.4%, and its share of services exports reached 6.6%, both showing strong growth compared to previous years.
China’s continued focus on diversification—both in terms of products and markets—has allowed it to maintain its leadership in global trade despite external challenges. Additionally, the growing trade relationship with India, while marked by some imbalances, underscores the increasing economic interdependence between the two countries. As China moves toward a more innovation-driven economy, its exports will likely continue to emphasise high-tech goods, digital services, and cultural exports. In the coming years, the country’s role in shaping global trade will become even more significant, driven by its technological advancements, infrastructure investments, and growing global consumer market.