The Old Farmer's Almanac spring 2025 forecast: Warm, wet spring for much of US
Mike SniderWho needs Punxsutawney Phil? Ahead of Groundhog Day, the Old Farmer's Almanac already has a forecast for the upcoming spring season: Warmer temperatures ahead.
The Old Farmer's Almanac, which has been in business since 1792, recently released its spring weather forecast. The outlook? "Warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of the country, with a few exceptions: southern and central California, Desert Southwest, southern Florida, and western Ohio Valley, where it will be near to below normal."
A wetter spring is predicted, too, by the Old Farmer's Almanac. "Much of the country will experience more rainfall than usual. However, dry conditions are expected in the following regions: upper New England, southern Florida, Texas–Oklahoma and the Heartland, the western Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes, the northern High Plains and Upper Midwest, and the Pacific Northwest and northern California," the Almanac says.
In general, that parallels the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center's outlook for spring, with much of the U.S. expected to get average or above average temperatures and about half to get average precipitation from March to May.
When is the first day of spring?
March 20, the date of the spring equinox, is the first day of spring in the U.S.
How does The Old Farmer's Almanac make its weather predictions?
The Old Farmer's Almanac compares "solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity" to make long-term predictions. It's taken into account "a weak La Nina phase of the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation).
"Like all forecasters, we have not yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, though our results are often very close to our traditional claim of 80%," it says.
Is the Old Farmer's Almanac always accurate?
It depends on your point of view. For this winter, The Old Farmer's Almanac forecast, in general, "a temperate uneventful winter," back in August 2024.
Of course, the U.S. was hit in January with a major winter storm followed by an Arctic blast of below-average temperatures across the country. Subsequently, a "once in a generation weather event" hit the South and set snowfall records from Texas to Florida.
For its part, The Farmer's Almanac also forecast a milder – and wetter – winter.
The almanacs are valued by farmers as they "have developed a certain kind of trust with their product and information,” Steve Hu, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, told Scientific American.
But weather forecasters typically pooh-pooh their predictions. A University of Illinois study from 2010, cited by Popular Mechanics in an October 2022 story, found The Old Farmer's Almanac only about 52% accurate over the years, "which is essentially random chance," the news site wrote.
NOAA, National Weather Service: Spring 2025 forecast
Here's a closer look at the NWS Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlook for spring, with average or above average temperatures and average precipitation forecast for much of the U.S. from March to May:
- Below average temperatures: Cooler than average temperatures are expected for the Northwest, as well as Montana and parts of Alaska, the Dakotas, Idaho and Wyoming.
- Above average temperatures: Areas where temperatures are expected to at least lean above average include much of the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, Southeast and Southwest.
- Below average precipitation: Below average precipitation is likely in the Southwest and Florida.
- Above average precipitation: Areas predicted to have above average precipitation include parts of the Northwest and the middle U.S., including Arkansas and Mississippi, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New York.
The Old Farmer's Almanac: Regional forecast highlights for April and May
Here's the forecast highlights from The Old Farmer's Almanac for the coming months of April and May 2025, by region.
Northeast: Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Vermont
No significant snowfall is forecast. Temperatures will be warmer than average, especially in April (3 degrees Fahrenheit above normal), the almanac says. Precipitation is expected to be average in April and below average in May, No significant snowfall is forecast.
Atlantic Corridor: Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island, parts of Maryland and Virginia
Temperatures will be warmer than usual, with the southern region seeing temperatures 5 degrees Fahrenheit above average in April. Rainfall will be above normal in April and slightly below normal in May.
Appalachian region: Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, parts of North Carolina and West Virginia
In this mountainous region, spring temperatures will be slightly warmer than usual; precipitation will range from slightly above average to average.
Southeast forecast: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina
Temperatures will be near average along the coast of the Carolinas and Georgia, but above normal in the western parts of the region. Rainfall will be near normal overall.
Florida: The Old Farmer's Almanac April-May forecast
The northern part of the state will experience warmer and wetter conditions, while the southern part will be cooler and drier than usual.
Lower Lakes: Michigan, parts of Illinois, Indiana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Michigan and the Great Lake states will get temperatures warmer than normal overall. As for rainfall, expect above normal precipitation in the East and below normal in the West.
Ohio Valley: Kentucky, parts of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin
The start of April brings below normal temperatures and precipitation to much of Kentucky, southern Illinois, Indiana and neighboring areas, but normal conditions in the rest of the region. For May, the entire region will get above-normal temperatures and rainfall.
Deep South: Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, part of Georgia
After normal temperatures in April, the region gets warmer-than-normal temperatures in May. Wetter than usual conditions are expected overall, but particularly in the southern areas of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
Upper Midwest: Minnesota, Wisconsin, parts of North Dakota, South Dakota and Michigan
Temperatures will be much warmer than usual (3 degrees Fahrenheit above average), while precipitation will be drier in the north and wetter in the south.
Heartland: Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, plus parts of Nebraska and South Dakota
Expect a warm spring, especially in the north (3 degrees Fahrenheit above average in April) and below normal rainfall. Heat and dry conditions will likely continue through the summer.
The Old Farmer's Almanac April-May forecast for Oklahoma and Texas
April begins with below-normal temperatures, but warmer than normal temps arrive in May. Rainfall will be slightly below to near normal.
High Plains: Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming, parts of Kansas, New Mexico and Oklahoma
The Plains will experience normal to warm temperatures, especially in the North (6 degrees Fahrenheit above average in April). Rainfall will be below normal in the North and above normal in the South.
Intermountain: Idaho, Nevada, Utah, parts of Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming and New Mexico
Temperatures will be warmer than normal in April (4 degrees Fahrenheit above average), but cooler than normal in May (3 degrees Fahrenheit below average). Rainfall will be above normal overall.
Desert Southwest: Arizona, New Mexico, parts of Texas, Nevada and California.
Cooler than usual temperatures are expected in the desert areas of New Mexico, Arizona, and southeastern California. Rainfall will be slightly above normal.
Pacific Northwest: Oregon, Washington, California
Along the coast, temperatures will be above normal in April (3 degrees Fahrenheit above average), but drop to below normal in May. Conditions will be slightly drier than usual.
The Old Farmer's Almanac April-May forecast for the Pacific Southwest (California)
Temperatures will be above normal in April but drop to below normal in May. Below normal rainfall is forecast for the north and above normal precipitation in the south.
The Old Farmer's Almanac April-May forecast for Alaska
Temperatures and precipitation will be above normal overall.
The Old Farmer's Almanac April-May forecast for Hawaii
Normal temperatures in the west are forecast, but warmer-than-usual temperatures are expected in the east; wetter-than-usual conditions are expected statewide.
Contributing: Janson McNair and John Tufts, USA TODAY Network.
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