California almond growers are navigating the complexities of trade disputes amid changes in international tariffs. With over 75% of California's almond production intended for export, recent tariffs introduced by the Trump administration have raised concerns within the industry regarding potential economic impacts statewide.
As the leading global almond producer, California supplies approximately 80% of the world's almonds. In 2022, almond exports generated $4.7 billion for the state, with significant revenue derived from the European Union and India, according to state farm data.
The Trump administration's recent tariff policies have added layers of complexity to the export market. President Donald Trump enacted a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and proposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, later postponing it for 30 days. The administration has also suggested reciprocal tariffs to align with those imposed by other countries on U.S. exports. Economists indicate these measures have complicated future planning for farmers.
In retaliation, China increased tariffs on U.S. almonds, resulting in a total tariff rate of 35% on California almonds. This escalation builds on tariffs from Trump's initial term, with China's countermeasures also affecting other U.S. agricultural products.
Agricultural economist Colin Carter from the University of California, Davis, highlighted the potential consequences of further trade tensions. "If we start a trade war with India, the European Union, or parts of the Middle East, the almond industry in California is going to suffer dramatically," he stated. "The price will fall even further, and you'll see orchards being ripped out, farms being lost."
Increased tariffs have intensified competition from other almond-producing nations. Australia, for example, has expanded its market presence in China as California almonds became pricier due to tariffs.
California almond exporters are adapting by broadening their market reach. "While China continues to be an important market, California almonds are shipped to more than 100 destinations," said Rick Kushman, spokesperson for the Almond Board of California. "Maintaining a diverse export program is essential."
Zachary Williams, sales director for Stewart & Jasper Orchards in Newman, California, observed that buyers in countries like Canada are advancing purchases ahead of potential tariffs. However, he noted that uncertainty remains a significant challenge. "The uncertainty is probably more of a problem than the tariff itself," Williams said. "Uncertainty about whether there will be, or won't be, is a little harder to plan around."
Despite some Central Valley farmers supporting Trump's agricultural water policies, the volatile trade environment poses risks to the long-term viability of California's almond industry. With orchards requiring years to mature, growers stress the importance of a stable global trade framework for their continued success.
Source 1: Oregon Live
Source 2: NBC Bay Area