Climate and Disaster Risk in the Caribbean

The Caribbean stands as a powerful testament to the brutal realities of climate change. The Latin America and Caribbean INFORM Risk Index (2020) revealed that the Caribbean stands among the world’s most disaster-prone regions, facing relentless threats from hurricanes, floods, landslides, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. In these island states, relentless storms and rising seas have left behind a trail of destruction, economic devastation, and enduring hardship for their people. The Caribbean region has been relentlessly battered by the devastating forces of climate change and has suffered significant loss and damage, both immediate destruction and long-term economic hardship. In July 2024, Hurricane Beryl, a fierce Category 4 storm, wreaked havoc across several islands. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines saw a staggering 90% of homes either damaged or destroyed and around 200,000 people displaced. Grenada faced an estimated USD 430 million in damages and experienced widespread deforestation and devastating structural destruction. Barbados also felt the blow, incurring losses of approximately USD 96.5 million, roughly 1.4% of its GDP. The Bahamas, too, have been crushed under the weight of climate-induced disasters, with Hurricane Dorian in 2019 causing an astonishing USD 3.4 billion in damage. And these are only a few examples.

The countries of the Caribbean face diverse climate and disaster risks. Highly vulnerable nations like the Bahamas, Haiti, and Dominica are prone to hurricanes, rising sea levels, and floods, and is heavily dependent on tourism and agriculture. Countries such as Jamaica, Saint Lucia, and Grenada, in contrast, face extreme weather and environmental degradation but also possess some adaptive capacity. Larger nations like Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Guyana experience varied risks, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, but their stronger economies and infrastructure enhance their resilience. As of March 10, 2025, the Caribbean was home to about 46.5 million people across over 40 territories. With a tropical climate marked by warm temperatures, high humidity, a dry season from December to April, and a wet season from May to November, the region is at heightened risk of hurricanes. At the same time, coastal trade winds bring a refreshing breeze, contributing to a generally pleasant climate.

Causes and consequences of climate and disaster risks

Sea-level rise and coastal erosion: Rising sea levels and coastal erosion, fueled by melting polar ice and thermal expansion, have wreaked havoc on low-lying Caribbean nations like the Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Haiti, and Cuba. With 70% of the population living in coastal areas, the risks are even more pronounced—storm surges and extreme weather events continue to endanger lives, livelihoods, and critical infrastructure. These natural forces threaten both the economies and ecosystems of these nations. Businesses have been repeatedly destroyed by the encroaching sea, forcing communities into a relentless cycle of rebuilding and loss. This constant cycle of destruction stifles economic growth and undermines livelihoods that depend on coastal resources. Across the Caribbean, rising seas have caused saltwater intrusion, damaged infrastructure, and reduced the area of land available for agriculture and habitation, heightening the risk of displacement and income loss and resulting in a decline in both natural and economic capital, ultimately both factors weakening long-term resilience. The economic toll is staggering. A 2020 study warns that climate-related damages in the Caribbean could soar from 5% of regional GDP in 2025 to over 20% by 2100 if current trends persist. Other projections estimate the annual cost of climate disruptions at USD 22 billion by 2050, underscoring the urgent need for bold action.

Intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes: Rising global temperatures have increased the strength of tropical storms and hurricanes, with warmer sea surface temperatures fueling more intense storms. Nations like Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and Haiti have borne the brunt of these increasingly powerful events. Hurricane Ivan in 2004, for example, inflicted damage exceeding 135% of Grenada's GDP, setting back its development by a decade. Similarly, Hurricane Dorian in 2019 caused USD 3.4 billion in damages to the Bahamas, pushing its national debt to around USD10 billion. The intense storms have had devastating socio-economic and environmental consequences across the Caribbean. In Grenada, Hurricane Ivan and its aftermath delayed development by ten years, decimating critical infrastructure and livelihoods. In the Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian exacerbated an already strained financial situation, hampering both recovery and resilience efforts. Hurricanes like Maria (2017) in Dominica destroyed 90% of buildings and displaced thousands. Indeed, across the region, escalating disaster costs have stretched government resources for essential services like healthcare, education, and infrastructure thin.

Deforestation and environmental degradation: Deforestation and environmental degradation have made the Caribbean increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters, particularly in countries like Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, and Belize. In Haiti, widespread deforestation has caused severe soil erosion, leaving the country highly susceptible to floods and landslides, especially during hurricanes. The loss of trees, which play a crucial role as natural barriers, has amplified the destructive power of storms. Similarly, in Antigua and Barbuda, the destruction of 678 hectares of tree cover between 2001 and 2018 has exacerbated soil erosion, weakening the island’s natural defenses. Environmental degradation not only magnifies the damage associated with natural disasters but also hampers recovery, trapping these nations in a vicious cycle of declining ecosystems and escalating disaster risks.

Socioeconomic vulnerabilities: Socioeconomic vulnerabilities have intensified the Caribbean's exposure to climate and disaster risks, particularly in Haiti, Jamaica, Barbados, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago. In Haiti, high population density and stark income inequality have exacerbated the impacts of climate change, heightening the nation's vulnerability to hurricanes and flooding and resulting in the loss of crucial resources, such as coral reefs, which are vital to its economy. Similarly, in Antigua and Barbuda, where tourism makes up 80% of the GDP, rising sea levels and weather unpredictability threaten both the tourism industry and local livelihoods. These vulnerabilities undermine adaptive capacity, leading to significant economic setbacks, livelihood losses, and delayed recovery, particularly in regions heavily reliant on climate-sensitive industries like agriculture and tourism.

Insufficient climate resilience and financial constraints: Insufficient climate resilience and financial constraints have significantly hindered the Caribbean's ability to effectively tackle climate impacts, particularly in nations like the Bahamas, Grenada, Haiti, Barbados, and Saint Lucia. In the Bahamas, the national debt, which reached around USD 10 billion, was further strained by the devastation caused by Hurricane Dorian in 2019, limiting the government's ability to invest in infrastructure resilient to future climate risks. Similarly, Grenada’s use of a "hurricane clause" to suspend debt repayments after natural disasters underscores the financial challenges small island nations face in prioritizing climate resilience. These financial constraints have curtailed vital investments in disaster-resistant infrastructure, sustainable development, and long-term adaptation strategies, leaving the region vulnerable to further climate shocks and impeding recovery efforts.

Current initiatives and emerging needs

Sea-level rise and coastal erosion: To address the growing threat posed by rising sea levels and coastal erosion, the UNDP, in partnership with the Global Environment Facility (GEF), launched Integrated Coastal Zone Management projects, which focus on sustainable development, habitat restoration, and building sea defenses. The World Bank also bolstered regional cooperation through the Caribbean Regional Oceans cape Project, which aims to strengthen climate resilience and safeguarding coastal ecosystems. These initiatives have reduced vulnerability and fostered sustainable coastal management. Moving forward, priorities include enhancing coastal protection infrastructure, restoring mangroves, and improving early warning systems. Long-term strategies emphasize preserving ecosystems and fostering regional cooperation through international financing mechanisms like the Green Climate Fund to ensure sustainable coastal livelihoods. The Caribbean region could draw valuable lessons from global best practices. For instance, the Netherlands’ Room for the River Program restores wetlands and creates floodplains, allowing rivers to overflow safely, thus protecting urban areas from flooding. Bangladesh’s Coastal Embankment Project strengthens embankments and flood defenses against storm surges and rising sea levels. In Australia, efforts to protect the Great Barrier Reef focus on limiting coastal development and restoring coral to enhance the reef’s resilience. For its part, Vietnam’s Mekong Delta Initiative combines mangrove restoration, sea dike construction, and the promotion of salt-resistant rice varieties to adapt sustainably to changing environmental conditions.

Intense tropical storms and hurricanes: To mitigate the growing impact of storms and hurricanes, the UNDP supported the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), which provides vital financial protection, and the World Bank assisted with post-disaster recovery in Grenada and the Bahamas. CDEMA coordinated emergency responses and relief efforts after Hurricane Dorian. In the short term, the focus was on enhancing early warning systems and community preparedness. In the medium term, the emphasis shifted to building climate-resilient infrastructure and strengthening financial mechanisms like climate resilience bonds. Long-term strategies prioritize scaling up regional cooperation, implementing comprehensive climate adaptation plans, and tackling socioeconomic challenges to reduce vulnerability and foster recovery. The Caribbean region can also draw inspiration from global best practices. Japan leads with its advanced typhoon early warning systems, real-time satellite data, and comprehensive evacuation plans. The Philippines builds disaster-resilient infrastructure while actively engaging communities in risk management, while Vietnam restores mangroves and constructs sea dikes for coastal protection. In India, cyclone shelters equipped with supplies and community awareness programs ensure that evacuations are swift.

Deforestation and environmental degradation: To combat deforestation and environmental degradation in the Caribbean, a range of impactful initiatives have been launched by governments, NGOs, and international organizations. The UNDP, in partnership with the GEF, implemented the Sustainable Land Management Project in Haiti, focusing on reforestation and land restoration to curb soil erosion and boost disaster resilience. The Caribbean Development Bank supported Antigua and Barbuda's reforestation efforts, while the FAO championed sustainable land management practices such as agro forestry and community-led conservation. These actions have enhanced natural defenses against storms, improved disaster resilience, and restored vital ecosystems. In the short term, efforts prioritized reforestation in high-risk areas, while medium-term policies concentrated on sustainable land management practices. Long-term strategies aim to embed ecosystem restoration into national development plans, with a strong emphasis on biodiversity conservation and providing financial incentives for community-led conservation. Globally, countries are implementing innovative solutions to tackle deforestation and environmental degradation. Brazil leads with satellite monitoring, protected areas and sustainable farming to safeguard the Amazon. Indonesia focuses on reforestation and sustainable palm oil production to restore degraded lands. For its part, Kenya empowers communities through forest management to curb illegal logging, and China's Green Great Wall Project is planting millions of trees to fight desertification and create sustainable opportunities. The Caribbean region can draw valuable lessons from these global best practices to enhance its environmental resilience.

Socioeconomic vulnerabilities: To address socioeconomic vulnerabilities in the Caribbean, a variety of transformative initiatives have been spearheaded by international organizations, governments, and NGOs. In Haiti, the UNDP and World Bank focused on community-based adaptation and climate-resilient agriculture to combat income inequality and strengthen local economies. In Antigua and Barbuda, the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) supported climate resilience efforts, including infrastructure adaptations aimed at safeguarding the tourism sector. At the same time, the FAO and the UNDP have been working to enhance agricultural systems through climate-smart practices, helping farmers adapt to shifting environmental conditions. Immediate actions have centered around improving climate risk insurance, while medium-term strategies have focused on bolstering social safety nets and diversifying economic opportunities. Long-term priorities include building education systems, fostering capacity-building, and promoting regional cooperation for sustainable, climate-resilient economic growth. Globally, countries have implemented a number of innovative solutions to address socioeconomic vulnerabilities, some of which Caribbean nations could adapt and replicate. India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Act creates wage employment and supports sustainable development projects. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program provides food and cash transfers, along with agricultural and environmental initiatives to protect vulnerable populations. Mexico’s Prospera Program links social aid to children’s education and health, boosting resilience for low-income families. In Kenya, the M-Pesa mobile banking system enhances financial inclusion, enabling communities to withstand economic shocks. These best practices offer valuable insights for the Caribbean as it works to strengthen its socioeconomic resilience.

Insufficient climate resilience and financial constraints: To overcome financial constraints and enhance climate resilience, the World Bank and the CDB have supported the Bahamas and Grenada with disaster risk financing and climate resilience programs. The CCRIF provided rapid financial protection for immediate disaster response, while the UNDP assisted Grenada in leveraging a "hurricane clause" to fund critical climate-resilience initiatives. The IMF and World Bank also offered loans and grants to help build resilient infrastructure in these nations. Immediate priorities have focused on expanding disaster risk financing tools, while medium-term efforts have centered on promoting climate bonds and fostering public-private partnerships. Long-term strategies aim to integrate climate resilience into national development plans, with an emphasis on strengthening governance and financial management through capacity-building. Caribbean countries can draw valuable lessons from global best practices. In Bangladesh, climate-resilient agriculture initiatives help farmers adapt through improved crops and water-efficient techniques. Kenya’s Climate-Smart Agriculture program supports farmers with drought-resistant crops, water-conservation practices, and financial assistance. India’s National Adaptation Fund finances projects such as flood control and resilient infrastructure, boosting the ability of local communities to withstand climate impacts. These innovative approaches provide powerful models for building resilience across the Caribbean.

Policy and commitment, the ultimate solution

In the Caribbean, regional policies focus on strengthening disaster preparedness, response, and resilience. The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) leads the charge, offering technical support through the Comprehensive Disaster Management Strategy to build resilience and reduce vulnerability. Countries like Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago align their disaster management plans with CDEMA’s framework, integrating early warning systems, public awareness campaigns, and community-based strategies. The Caribbean Environmental Resilience and Disaster Displacement Response Plan (2022–2024) aim to bolster preparedness and response mechanisms, recognizing the increasing displacement caused by climate-driven disasters. Initiatives like the Climate Governance Initiative for the Caribbean (2021–2024) are equipping countries with the legal and policy frameworks needed to meet Paris Agreement commitments and amplify Caribbean voices in global climate negotiations. National policies for adaptation and mitigation, such as the national adaption plans and nationally determined contributions, work to mainstream climate and disaster risks into regional and national plans, ensuring better preparedness for multiple climate- and disaster-induced risks.

Caribbean leaders have actively advocated for enhanced disaster risk reduction and climate resilience on international platforms. At the United Nations climate conference in Baku, leaders from nations such as Grenada and Antigua and Barbuda highlighted the severe impacts of climate change on small island states and urged large and highly polluting nations to take greater responsibility. Grenada's prime minister emphasized the profound spiritual and psychological trauma caused by climate-induced disasters, including Hurricane Beryl in 2024. In addition, the CEO of the Caribbean Climate-Smart Accelerator represented the region at COP26 and COP28, presenting tools like the climate dashboard and smart climate map to showcase the Caribbean's commitment to climate resilience.

High-ranking UN officials have consistently highlighted the Caribbean's vulnerability to climate change and the urgent need for improved disaster risk management. UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the Caribbean "ground zero for the global climate emergency” and urged bold, collective action. UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner stressed that adaptation and disaster risk management are critical to advancing national development goals and achieving the 2030 Agenda and noted that vulnerable populations will still face challenges even if emissions are reduced. Ambassador Aubrey Webson, Chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, emphasized that the climate crisis is relentless and that small islands will have no reprieve as the crisis intensifies. These statements underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate adaptation and disaster risk strategies in the region.

Dr. Dhruba Gautam is an independent evaluator and researcher with expertise in natural resource management, climate resilience, and disaster risk reduction across the Asia-Pacific and Caribbean regions. The insights shared in this article are based on his extensive meta-evaluations of disaster and climate-related projects in the Caribbean. For collaborations or inquiries, he can be reached at drrgautam@gmail.com.