March 16, (THEWILL) – In a stunning outcome of events, the value of Nigeria’s agricultural goods exported in the fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded that of the imported category during the period. And this is historic.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show it was the first time in verifiable records that agricultural exports would exceed the imported side in Nigeria’s foreign trade reports.
The NBS in its latest ‘Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics’ report disclosed that the value of agricultural goods imported in Q4 2024 was N1.09 trillion. This reflects a remarkable increase of 53.35 percent, compared to N711.14 billion in Q4 2023 and an increase of 23.61 percent, hi when compared to N882.24 billion in Q3 2024.
On the flipside, exports of agricultural goods in the review period amounted to N1.54 trillion representing a whopping 232.02 percent rise from N463.97 billion in Q4 2023 and a 72.95 percent increase from N890.72 billion in Q3 2024.
Put together, the total value of trade in agricultural goods in Q4 2024 stood at N2.63 trillion, compared to N1.17 trillion in Q4 2023 – an increase of 124.7 percent.
While the value of agric exports and imports stood at N1.54 trillion and N1.09 trillion, respectively, in Q4 2024, the figures for Q4 2023 were N711.14 billion and N463.97 billion, reflecting a significant impact of the devaluation of the naira on export trade.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on June 14, 2023. announced the unification of the multiple foreign exchange market which sparked a massive devaluation of the naira from N472/US$1 in the official window on the previous day (June 13) to N665/U$1. The parallel market rate, prior to the devaluation, was N769/US$1. That triggered the continued downturn in naira’s value that rendered it one of the worst performing currencies at various times.
The naira closed at N1,567.28/US$1 in the official forex window on Friday, March 14, 2025 reflecting a loss of N1,096 within 21 months of devaluation of the domestic currency. The parallel market rate closed at N1,570/US$1 last Friday.
Economists say devaluation makes imports more expensive and exports cheaper. While the huge loss of value in the naira is not a positive phenomenon, the CBN emphasises that a weak naira is an opportunity for Nigeria to boost its export trade
Speaking at the Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja in October, 2024, the Governor of the Central Bank, Yemi Cardoso, stated that the sharp drop in the value of the naira presents an opportunity for the country to boost its exports to other nations.
The CBN Governor noted that the naira’s devaluation had made it more competitive for the export trade, with many investors already seizing the opportunity.
Cardoso acknowledged that while the situation is not ideal, the current climate offers a chance for individuals to identify and pursue investment opportunities.
“In terms of persuasion, what we need now is to ensure that investments are here. For example, now it may seem like a threat in a sense that the exchange rate has come down so low. But that also is an opportunity because it can help to boost exports.
“This will make Nigeria become a lot more competitive in the export trade. I just want to encourage people to see that the opportunities are here. Things are recalibrating in a particular direction. It’s not perfect, but definitely there are opportunities for people to single out and invest.
“By the time you are exporting out to other countries with the cost of import here and the relatively low naira, you will have a situation where the demands for your goods increase. And I see it happening. Others are doing it and the interest is growing in leaps and bounds,” Cardoso said.
The NBS listed the major agricultural export items as cocoa, sesamum seed and cashew nuts. According to the report, ‘Quality cocoa beans’ valued at N836.23 billion, ‘Standard quality Cocoa beans’ N269.34 billion and ‘Sesamum seeds’ N202.94 billion were exported.
Others are ‘Natural cocoa butter’ valued at N104.59 billion, and ‘Cashew nuts shelled’ with N30.76 billion.
The data showed that the agricultural products were mainly exported to Europe at N986.70 billion, followed by exports to Asia, valued at N474.38 billion. Further analysis showed that ‘Superior quality cocoa beans’ worth N477.95 billion and N108.09 billion were exported to The Netherlands and Malaysia, respectively.
Similarly, ‘Standard quality cocoa beans,’ worth N110.84 billion and N48.96 billion were exported to The Netherlands and Belgium respectively. Similarly, ‘Sesamum seeds’ worth N96.71 billion and N32.29 billion were exported to China and Japan, respectively.
On the other hand, the major agricultural goods imported in Q4, 2024 included ‘Durum wheat’ from Latvia and Russia valued at N69.80 billion and N58.27 billion, respectively. This was followed by ‘Jack and horse mackerel (Trachurus spp.) meat, frozen.’ valued at N66.18 billion from Chile.
“Nigeria can do far better than this if the government pays sincere attention to agriculture and agribusiness. We are here battling with insecurity, electricity and poor road networks across the country. These impact negatively on agriculture and agribusiness and worsen the already challenging business environment.
“Our leaders look the other way, jumping across the globe combing for foreign investors as if the international community does not know we are not serious people,” said Gabriel Onosanya, an agribusiness expert.
According to Onosanya, agriculture is not faring well in our GDP outlook mainly because of these negative phenomena.
The agricultural sector in the fourth quarter of 2024 grew by 1.76 percent (year-on-year) in real terms, a decrease of 0.35 percent points from the corresponding period of 2023 and an increase of 0.61 percent points from the preceding quarter which recorded a growth rate of 1.14 percent. It grew on a quarter-on-quarter basis at 0.38 percent.
Overall, annual growth of the agric sector stood marginally at 1.19 percent in 2024, compared to 1.13 percent in 2023.
In terms of contribution to GDP, the sector contributed 25.59 percent to aggregate GDP in real terms in Q4 2024, lower than the contribution in the fourth quarter of 2023 and lower than the third quarter of 2024, which stood at 26.11percent and 28.65 percent, respectively. The overall contribution in 2024 was 24.64 percent from 25.18 percent in 2023.
Agriculture is also the weeping child of Nigeria’s high rate of inflation. Nigeria’s inflationary outlook has undergone a significant shift, following the recent rebasing of the CPI by the NBS. The latest data for January 2025 shows headline inflation reactions at 24.48 percent, a sharp 10.32 basis points decline from December 2024’s 34.80 percent.
The NBS maintains that the surge in food inflation continues to challenge the economy with firms shutting down over high operation costs while households experience steep drop in living standard spiked by high cost of living.
The NBS also explained that worsening insecurity across the country, especially in the North which is the nation’s food basket, is behind the high cost of food. It noted that the mass food producing areas of the North have been under the siege of insecurity in the past nine years.
In states like Niger, Benue, Plateau, Borno, Katsina, Taraba and others, the farming communities have deserted their farm lands where they were displaced by bandits, herdsmen, terrorists and kidnappers and they are now living in the internally displaced persons (IDP) camps.
Unfortunately, there are no signs that the ugly trend is likely to improve any time soon, given the continued spate of killings and abductions across the country, especially in the food-producing areas of the North, since the beginning of the Bola Tinubu-led Federal Government in May 2023.
According to Onosanya, while agribusiness operators are swimming in a huge volume of naira that has last over 70 percent of its value since June 2023, the real impact is the thousands of Nigerian farmers who have deserted their farmlands to live in the IDP camps because of persistent attacks by the herdsmen that terrorize their communities.
Sam Diala is a Bloomberg Certified Financial Journalist with over a decade of experience in reporting Business and Economy. He is Business Editor at THEWILL Newspaper, and believes that work, not wishes, creates wealth.
