“We continue to hold pretty steady at most of the main durum buying locations, with $7 to $7.10 seeming to catch a lot of the bids for top-end durum,” said Jim Peterson, market director for the North Dakota Wheat Commission.

Some of the shear fundamentals, including recent projections coming from USDA’s February projections, “probably contradicts a little where current prices are.”

USDA has projected ending stocks of U.S. durum at 35 million bushels (MB) by the end of May. That compares to 21 MB a year ago, so essentially that’s 50 percent more stocks on hand, potentially.

“The market seems to be implying that it’s tighter than that, so whether they’ve understated domestic consumption a little or last year’s stocks, or overstated production, I guess we’ll see if they make any adjustments. Nonetheless, it’s certainly good to see durum prices holding in there,” he said.

The market was waiting to see if USDA would make any adjustments in its March 11 report.

“One of the big underlying factors is due to the potential tariffs on Canadian durum coming down (to the U.S.) just because Canadian durum makes up such a big share of domestic grind,” he explained. “The industry likes to tout that it’s only about 25 percent, but I think during certain segments of the year it’s close to half or more of domestic grind, so it’s pretty significant. I think that’s what’s holding durum up a little.

“If we look at the spread to spring wheat at some of those similar locations, the main durum growing areas, spring wheat is at about $5.50 a bushel if you have 14-protein wheat, so there’s still a pretty significant spread. Spring wheat has seen some market pressure recently, and with that, I think there’s incentive for expanded durum plantings this spring in the U.S.,” he added.

Peterson also pointed out that the U.S. Risk Management Agency came out earlier this month with the crop insurance prices for the 2025 planting season. Spring wheat came in at $6.55 per bushel, which is down 30 cents from a year ago. Durum came in at $7.73 per bushel, which is only down 16 cents from a year ago.

“Both in the market, as well as insurance coverage, durum is certainly showing more attractive price levels for growers, so I think we’ll definitely see an increase in durum acres, it’s just a question of how much,” he said.

Looking at fundamentals in the market, current U.S. durum exports were “a little disappointing” at just 12 MB as of the start of March. A year ago, at this time, U.S. durum sales were 16.5 MB, so that’s own about 25 percent.

“That can be a factor that USDA adjusts. They’re still projecting that we’ll export 25 million bushels vs. 27 million last year. I don’t think we’ll get to the 25-million-bushel level, so they’ll probably reduce that,” he said.

Top markets for U.S. durum are Italy, Algeria, Nigeria, Japan and Venezuela.

Looking at Canada, our major competitor, as of the end of January, they had shipped out 103 MB of durum compared to 58 MB a year ago at this time.

“They’re projected to hit close to 185 million bushels, so they still have a way to go, but they’re usually pretty consistent month-to-month,” he said, adding Canada’s top markets are Italy, Morocco, Algeria and then the U.S. as their number four market.

Through January, Canada has shipped down 10 MB to the U.S. market. That compares to just 7 MB a year ago for that same time period.

“Obviously, (there’s been) some front loading by mills in the U.S. to get ahead of the tariffs. But if tariffs go in to stay for an extended period, a 25 percent tariff level would obviously push more of that demand to the U.S.,” he said.

Thus far, domestic grind in the U.S. has been steady, but Peterson believes food use may be a little better than what USDA is projecting.

Looking ahead, Peterson said the markets are going to start transitioning to 2025 and looking at durum production worldwide. He explained that, internationally, some of the first harvest takes place in North Africa, and then the Syria and Turkey region. North African harvest can start in mid- to late April and go through the middle part of May.

“As of right now, Morocco is in pretty rough shape again with their crop. It’s getting too late to really change the dynamics there, so Morocco will again be a pretty strong importer,” he said.

“Algeria is pushing hard to become self-sufficient. Over the years, that’s kind of been a lost cause (as) they’ve never been able to achieve that. But they’re kind of marginal on their crop this year, so they’ve slowed down their import pace a little, expecting close to average or slightly better production,” he continued, adding that Tunisia is seeing pretty good crop prospects at this time, but they usually have some quality shortfalls. Turkey is a bit dry, and Syria is also quite dry, so there could be some stronger demand from there, as well as continued constraints on Turkish exports.

But the big driver going forward will be the European, Canadian and U.S. crops, according to Peterson. At this time, Europe is struggling with overly wet conditions again, which may hamper their production in 2025. In Canada, some of the preliminary numbers coming out of projections call for about 6.2 million acres of durum, which would actually be down slightly from last year’s 6.3 million. However, some of the private trade expects 6.5 million acres or higher for durum.

“(Canada’s) producers are probably not seeing quite the spread in prices between spring wheat and durum. They did have higher protein in their spring wheat, so they’re not facing the discounts like growers here. But, nonetheless, they’re expecting a pretty good crop in Canada again this year, dependent on growing season moisture,” he said.

As mentioned previously, initial industry thoughts are for higher durum acres in the U.S. in 2025, it’s just a matter of how much. And, of course, the other big issue is soil moisture.

“There are forecasts for some early spring snowstorms, it’s just a matter of where they’ll hit,” he said. “So far, they’ve been tracking south of North Dakota and especially the durum growing regions, so we’ll see what kind of moisture we get before planting. But as of right now, we certainly would welcome some moisture prior to planting to help get the crop off to a good start. As of now, the market is holding steady to maybe slightly stronger in the nearby.”