Good morning!
Corn seeing relative weakness… Corn gave up Monday’s gain overnight while soybeans and wheat are posting modest gains. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 2 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are around a penny higher and wheat is 1 to 3 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around steady, while front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher and near recent highs.
Trump announces Xi’s upcoming visit amid trade tensions… President Donald Trump stated that Chinese leader Xi Jinping would visit Washington in the “not too distant future” as trade tensions escalate between the two nations. Trump has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, citing Beijing’s failure to curb the flow of illegal fentanyl. The Wall Street Journal reported discussions about a potential “birthday summit” in June, though Trump did not confirm a specific date. China has accused the U.S. of using fentanyl as a pretext for tariffs, while both sides remain deadlocked on trade talks. Despite escalating tensions, Trump has signaled openness to a new trade deal.
U.S. pork exports to China fully restored… The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) announced that all 300+ U.S. pork harvesting and cold storage facilities have successfully renewed their registrations to export to China. This five-year renewal, achieved through negotiations by USDA and the U.S. Trade Representative, ensures continued market access for U.S. pork producers.
Lawmakers push Trump administration to address Canada dairy trade issues... As U.S./Canada trade tensions rise, farm-state lawmakers are urging the Trump administration to confront Canada over its dairy trade policies. Lawmakers and dairy industry groups argue that Canada is failing to meet its U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) commitments, particularly on dairy market access and export limits. In a bipartisan letter (link) to key trade officials, lawmakers called for the administration to prioritize these issues in USMCA sunset review talks and broader trade negotiations. They criticized Canada’s restrictive Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs), which limit U.S. dairy exports, and accused Canada of exploiting loopholes to circumvent export caps on dairy protein.
China/U.S. trade tensions boost Brazilian soybean premiums... Ongoing trade disputes between China and the U.S. have driven up Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans, raising export premiums at Brazilian ports. At the Port of Santos, April shipments now carry a 65-cent-per-bushel premium, rising to 75 cents for May. Analysts expect this trend to persist as China adjusts to new customs policies that have extended soybean delivery times. Despite Brazil’s record harvest, strong demand is keeping premiums elevated.
Cordonnier leave South American forecasts unchanged… Harvest continues to roll on in Brazil, with central areas of the country nearing completion. Late planted beans are being impacted by dry weather. Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean production estimate unchanged at 170 MMT and his corn production estimate unchanged at 123 MMT, maintaining a neutral bias for both. Cordonnier maintain his Argentine production estimates at 48 MMT for soybeans and 46 MMT for corn, maintaining a neutral bias for each.
Indonesia raises palm oil export levy to fund biodiesel expansion… Indonesia will increase its palm oil export levy to between 4.5% and 10% of the crude palm oil reference price, up from 3% to 7.5%, to support a mandated rise in biodiesel use, a plantation fund official announced, according to Reuters. This year, the biodiesel mix requirement increased to 40% from 35%, with a potential rise to 50% in 2026. Authorities also plan a 3% palm oil blend for jet fuel next year to curb fuel imports. The new levy rates will take effect three days after regulatory approval, with 35.47 trillion rupiah ($2.15 billion) allocated for subsidies in 2024. Indonesia exports about half of the world’s palm oil, which could lead to additional demand for alternative soyoil.
Official information regarding $10 billion in farmer aid expected today… Information for the American Relief Act is expected to be released around 9 a.m. CT today, outlining and opening the application process and deadlines. Economic assistance aid can be expected relatively quickly after submitting the application, as USDA aims to distribute the funds efficiently. The process is designed to be simple, transparent, and fast, with pre-filled applications being sent to producers where information is already on file, using 2024 acreage reporting data. Additional details can be found here.
Fed meeting begins today… The U.S. Federal Reserve will begin their March policy meeting today. The Fed is expected to leave short-term rates unchanged. The meeting will conclude tomorrow afternoon when the Fed releases their interest rate decision. Investors will focus on the central bank’s updated economic projections, including the dot plot, and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for signals on future policy direction.
Winter wheat crop ratings decline… USDA rated the Kansas wheat crop as 48% “good” to “excellent,” down four points from the previous week. Ratings in Texas and Oklahoma were steady at 28% and 46%, respectively. In Colorado, ratings fell seven points to 60% “good” to “excellent.” Dry conditions were exacerbated by recent wind and dust storms, fueling the decline in topsoil moisture and playing a role in yesterday’s impressive rally in HRW futures.
Gold surges to record high overnight… Nearby gold futures pushed above the $3,000 mark for the first time late last week. Prices climbed to $3,037.6 overnight, a fresh all-time high. Gold continues to be driven by safe-haven buying amid volatility in equity markets, heightened tensions in the Middle East and inflation concerns due to tariffs.
Cattle prices surged last week… After abysmal trading most of the week, cash cattle surged higher on Friday as trading took off. Last week’s cash cattle average climbed $5.02 from the previous week to $205.30. Trade is likely to be pushed late into the week again this week given the Cattle on Feed Report.
Cash hog fundamentals continue to chop… The CME lean hog index is down another 27 cents to $89.28 as of March 14, a fresh for-the-move low. Pork cutout was up 27 cents on Monday, led by strength in loins and bellies, though all other cuts posted losses.
Overnight demand news... Japan tendered 122,456 MT of wheat for June delivery, expected to be sourced from the U.S., Canada and Australia.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 11:00 a.m. Fruit and Tree Nuts Data — ERS
- 11:00 a.m. Vegetables and Pulses Data — ERS