The Sukkur Barrage has run dry just as Sindh’s crucial crop season gets underway, sending shockwaves across the province. Reports of two major northern dams reaching dead levels have stoked fears of an escalating water crisis, particularly for the seven canals drawing from the Indus River to sustain agriculture in Sindh and parts of Balochistan. Meanwhile, the federal government’s plan to construct six more canals to irrigate at least eight million acres of sandy terrain has sparked outrage, as it threatens to siphon off even more water from an already struggling Sindh.
Yet, while the panic is understandable, the broader picture reveals a more intricate reality. The rivers themselves have not dried up, nor have the canals supporting agriculture in Sindh and Punjab. Run-of-the-river flows continue as usual, even in the driest months. “The tragedy isn’t just about dried-up dams,” says Dr. Hassan Abbas, a leading hydrologist. “The real issue is that the Indus no longer crosses the Kotri Barrage, starving the delta of the silt, sand, and freshwater it needs to survive.”
Indus Delta in Distress
Once the world's fifth-largest, the Indus Delta has shrunk by 92% due to systematic water diversion, not just scarcity, preventing flows from reaching it. The destruction of the delta is not just an environmental disaster but an economic and social catastrophe. Once a thriving ecosystem, it supported a rich fishery industry, sustained fertile lands, and acted as a crucial buffer against sea intrusion. As it withers away, fisheries have collapsed, communities have been driven out, and seawater has crept inland, turning once-productive farmland into barren salt flats. If this trend carries on, Sindh’s agricultural future will be in jeopardy, leaving millions struggling to secure food and livelihoods.
Dry Dams, Dying Crops
While the delta’s destruction represents the long-term fallout of water mismanagement, the immediate impact is being felt in Sindh’s fields, where farmers are watching their crops wither due to erratic water supplies. The overreliance on vast irrigation networks designed for water-intensive crops has left little room for adaptive strategies. As reservoir levels plunge, farmers are left scrambling for alternatives, but the lack of planning has made resilience nearly impossible.
Pakistan can either continue extracting water aggressively, prioritising cash crops and large-scale irrigation at the cost of long-term sustainability or it can embrace a new paradigm—one that restores natural water systems
Experts argue that rather than clinging to unsustainable farming practices, Pakistan should shift its agricultural focus to crops that require less water and suit local conditions. “We’ve bled the system dry by growing sugarcane and rice where they don’t belong,” says Dr. Hassan. “Instead of forcing water-guzzling paddy fields upstream, we should cultivate them near the river’s wetlands and in the delta, where they naturally thrive.”
Beyond Dams
As climate change accelerates and artificial reservoirs fail to meet growing demands, Pakistan must rethink its approach to water management. The traditional strategy of constructing large dams has proved inadequate, particularly as sedimentation reduces storage capacity and changing rainfall patterns make reservoir-dependent systems less reliable.
Nature itself offers a long-overlooked solution—wetlands and aquifers. “Wetlands and natural flooding along river corridors recharge underground water reserves and regulate water flows,” Dr. Hassan explains. “Our river corridor aquifers already store over 500 million acre-feet of high-quality water—whereas our largest artificial reservoir, Tarbela, holds less than six million acre-feet. The longer we put this off, the steeper the cost will be.”
By restoring wetlands, Pakistan could build a more sustainable water storage system that naturally replenishes itself and provides resilience against droughts. Additionally, managing river flows to ensure that the Indus reaches its delta would not only revive ecosystems but also enhance food security by creating natural floodplains for agriculture.
Waterways to Wealth
Beyond agriculture, Pakistan’s rivers hold untapped potential as trade corridors. Historically, the Indus was a vital link for inland navigation, connecting the country’s heartland to the Arabian Sea. However, over time, a focus on road and rail transport led to the neglect of waterways. Dr. Hassan argues that reviving river navigation could transform Pakistan’s economy. “We’ve shut down our natural connection to seafaring trade,” he points out. “Restoring river navigation could not only link Pakistan’s heartland with the Arabian Sea but also open up Central Asia and western China to seaborne trade, slashing transport costs and turning the country into a regional trade hub.”
With global trade shifting towards cost-effective and sustainable transportation options, Pakistan stands to benefit immensely from reviving its inland water transport systems. By doing so, it could reduce dependency on expensive road networks, lower carbon emissions, and create new economic opportunities along river corridors.
From Barrages to Basins
Pakistan can either continue extracting water aggressively, prioritising cash crops and large-scale irrigation at the cost of long-term sustainability or it can embrace a new paradigm—one that restores natural water systems, prioritises food security, and leverages its waterways for economic growth. The drying up of dams is not just a crisis; it is a wake-up call. The country must act now to shift its focus from short-term agricultural expansion to long-term resilience. The solution lies not in more dams but in better water management, the revival of wetlands, and the restoration of the Indus Delta as both an ecological and economic backbone. If Pakistan fails to act, the cost will be more than just lost crops—it will be a lost future.