‘Philippines First’ foreign policy

During the last century, the concept of being a neutral country was the favorite theme of many Filipino nationalists. Today, we still hear calls for our country to stay neutral. Unfortunately, geo-political changes have made this increasingly difficult.

In the latter part of the 20th century, the nonaligned world was composed largely of post-colonial countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. It was not surprising that the main agenda of this so-called “Third World” was to challenge Western dominance and, at that time, among its leaders were China and India.

The biggest change in today’s geopolitical world is that China is now a superpower. As China becomes more powerful, it has increasingly stopped other countries as partners but has begun acting like another imperial power. It has, for example, imposed draconian conditions on trade and investments which have led to active resistance to Chinese investments in an increasing number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in Southeast Asia.

In Southeast Asia, China has shifted from a policy of seeking partnerships to one of imposing its will. It has gone to the extent of violating the territorial sovereignty and pressuring countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Nations which have aligned themselves with China are no longer considered nonaligned but rather as the allies of a new superpower.

In the United States, the election of Donald Trump has further increased the pressure on Third World countries to give up nonalignment.

Trump’s policies on drastic increases on tariffs on its foreign trade; abandonment of the global fight against climate change; massive deportation of migrants and abandonment of its traditional alliances have been viewed as an isolationist policy or a retreat from the world.

However, these new radical policies actually suggest that the US is trying to reassert American hegemony.

The analysis is that if Trump threatens to withdraw from international agreements like NATO, he is actually insisting that the United States can go it alone and that other countries should just fall in line “… if they know what’s good for them.”

These new Trump policies should actually be interpreted as a bid to restore US primacy by making other countries pay heed, align with Washington or be left vulnerable in an increasingly uncertain global order.

For Third World countries, the difficulty is trying to unify without any acknowledged leader and to develop new strategies to literally survive in this new emerging Cold War between the two superpowers, China and the United States.

The other recourse is for each of the nonaligned countries to determine which superpower to align with, that will serve its national interest.

One of the most tragic policies of Trump is the abandonment of the global action against climate change. At the same time, China continues to be the world’s biggest source of pollution and continues to build coal-powered power plants. High carbon interest groups like extractors of fossil fuels will now be emboldened and will resist necessary reforms.

All this abandonment will lead to further deforestation and unsustainable agricultural expansions that will exacerbate climate change. All of this will threaten global food security by disrupting ecosystems and reducing crop yields all over the world.

The Philippines must develop its own independent climate change crusade while expecting very little assistance from other countries and international organizations.

The Third World must find ways to form effective coalitions to reshape international rules that today basically serve the interests of the superpowers. For example, it must form an alliance that will influence the current economic rules that favor the superpowers like China, US and the European Union.

This Third World movement must strive to lessen the supremacy of the US dollar as a global currency. The only effort to do this thus far is China. However, China will not serve the interests of the Third World countries because it is simply seeking to replace the dollar supremacy with that of the Chinese yuan.

The developing countries must lead the effort to strengthen global organizations like the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Presently, even the rules in these organizations serve to strengthen the influence of the superpowers.

The International Criminal Court is an example of an agency that the Third World must seek to strengthen. It is not surprising that the United States, China and Russia refuse to be members because the structure of the ICC prevents them from dominating this international court.

The Philippines right now is an ally of the United States because this alliance serves our national interests. The United States will maintain this alliance only for as long as it serves their national interests.

However, the main foreign policy goal of the Philippines is to establish an independent foreign policy and to actively form a global alliance with other nonaligned countries.

The next decade will be turbulent times for the world. The Philippines must never lose sight of its twin goals of placing its national interest first and actively joining a global Third World movement that will not become the tool of any superpower.