Opinion Tracking migration, five years after Covid

Five years on, the majority of these migrants have likely had to return to urban areas, bringing back the pre-Covid scenario. The rural economy was unable to absorb the returning workforce with the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) providing only partial and temporary relief. Lack of economic opportunities, rural distress, low rural wages, and urban aspirations continue to drive migration back to cities. Climate change is also becoming an important factor. A study conducted by the International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD) for the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and International Organisation for Migration (IOM) in Odisha found that climate change is significantly impacting agriculture and allied activities, contributing to distress and aspirational out-migration.

Migration to urban centres is expected to remain strong, with projections indicating that 40 per cent of India’s population will reside in cities by 2026. The Indian government continues to encourage migration to urban centres through initiatives such as the Smart Cities Mission, which aims to develop 100 cities into modern urban hubs and relies heavily on migrant labour.

The pandemic caused severe disruptions to international migrants as well. Indian emigrants encountered severe hardships, including job losses, wage cuts, overcrowded living conditions, and heightened health risks due to inadequate sanitation and protective measures. Despite job losses and wage cuts, remittances to India remained resilient, sustaining households reliant on them. The pandemic has reinforced the notion that remittances will remain a crucial driver of development in India, especially the emigrant-sending states.

Post-pandemic, international migration patterns have undergone notable shifts. While migration to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries remains robust, an increasing number of Indians are exploring new destinations.

Europe is emerging as an important destination for highly skilled Indians. Indians were the top beneficiaries of the European Union Blue Card programme in 2023, a work visa for highly qualified professionals. While migration to Europe is not a new phenomenon, Indians are increasingly moving to non-traditional destinations within Europe, such as Malta, Georgia, and other Eastern European nations.

Indians are also migrating in greater numbers to destinations in Africa driven by factors like the latter’s economic growth, expanding markets, and opportunities in sectors like information technology, manufacturing, and healthcare. However, challenges persist, as shown by the recent ordeal of 47 workers from Jharkhand stranded in Cameroon.

The pandemic also underscored the significance of Indian healthcare workers, who remain in high demand worldwide. Additionally, student migration from India has surged post-pandemic. The Kerala Migration Survey 2023 indicates that the number of student emigrants from Kerala nearly doubled from 1.29 lakh in 2018 to 2.5 lakh in 2023. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data shows that outward remittances for studies abroad peaked in 2021 at $3,171 million, reflecting a sharp increase in spending on international education. We have also witnessed the student crisis during the Russia-Ukraine war.

As migration patterns continue to evolve, improving migration governance is essential. Government policies and social security initiatives require systematic evaluation, reassessment, and reform to ensure they effectively serve the needs of migrants. The government launched the e-Shram portal in 2021 to create a National Database of Unorganised Workers (NDUW) and provide social security benefits, including insurance and access to subsidised food grains. However, registrations on the portal have plateaued due to a lack of awareness and digital access barriers. The One Nation One Ration Card (ONORC) scheme, introduced in 2018, was designed to facilitate access to Public Distribution System (PDS) benefits from any Fair Price Shop anywhere in the country, thus improving food security among internal migrants. However, a large segment of migrants continues to fall outside the ambit of the scheme. We need to evaluate and improve the programme for welfare and food security among migrants.

India needs an improved migration regime backed by reliable data. The delay of the 2021 Census and the lack of updated data on migration and demography remains a challenge, making it difficult to assess the pandemic’s long-term impact on migration. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2020-2021 recorded a migration rate of 28.9 per cent, a marginal increase from 28.5 per cent reported in the NSS 64th Round (2007-08). However, this data, collected during the Covid-19 crisis, when migration was in a state of flux, does not accurately represent the long-term shifts in migration patterns.

Similarly, the absence of a comprehensive database of Indian emigrants remains a significant gap. The Ministry of External Affairs’ count of Indian emigrants worldwide is likely an underestimate. As India’s migration patterns diversify beyond traditional destinations, a more robust migrant support network beyond conventional destinations is imperative.

The Kerala Migration Surveys, conducted every five years since 1998, have greatly improved the understanding of migration trends in Kerala, enabling better policy interventions. The Kerala model of migration surveys has been replicated in states like Odisha, Goa, Punjab, Gujarat, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu. Expanding this model to all states would strengthen migration governance and policy responses.

Rajan is Chair and Karuvally is Research Fellow at the International Institute of Migration and Development