Presidential monologue – Part 55

Mr President, good morning, and best wishes for a new week. There is a cacophony of voices in the country over the state of emergency you declared in Rivers State of the Nigerian Federation. They come with a strain of opposition and affirmation. On this burning issue, I am in opposition to your action. You recall that last week, I cautioned that you thread softly on the matter. Self–interest over the quest for a second term in 2027 dictates otherwise. Mr President, in my part of the country, because of the uncertainty of our world, we say, “God owns the day” (Osayande).

Mr President, I address this morning the wrongheaded nature of the state of emergency from both a constitutional standpoint and brinkmanship and the consequence for the democracy that we all fought for. I will end this piece with a footnote on your handling of the Lagos House of Assembly crisis.

Historically, let it not be said that there was no voice of reason on the points at issue. To be sure, the actions of statesmen and leaders are path-dependent all over the world; it is like premise and conclusion. Let me turn to the constitutional provisions for your action.

Under Part 2 Miscellaneous provisions, Section 305 of the 1999 as amended states as follows:
“(i) Subject to the provisions of this Constitution, the President may by instrument published in the Official -Gazette} of the Government of the Federation issue a Proclamation of a state of emergency in the Federation or any part thereof. (ii) The President shall immediately after the publication, transmit copies of the Official -Gazette of the Government of the Federation containing the proclamation including the details of the emergency to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, each of whom shall forthwith convene or arrange for a meeting of the House of which he is President or Speaker, as the case may be, to consider the situation and decide whether or not to pass a resolution approving the Proclamation.

“(iii) The President shall have power to issue a Proclamation of a state of emergency only when ­­-(a) the Federation is at war;(b) the Federation is in imminent danger of invasion or involvement in a state of war; (c) there is actual breakdown of public order and public safety in the Federation or any part thereof to such extent as to require extraordinary measures to restore peace and security; (d) there is a clear and present danger of an actual breakdown of public order and public safety in the Federation or any part thereof requiring extraordinary measures to avert such danger; (e) there is an occurrence or imminent danger, or the occurrence of any disaster or natural calamity, affecting the community or a section of the community in the Federation;(f) there is any other public danger which clearly constitutes a threat to the existence of the Federation; or (g) the President receives a request to do so in accordance with the provisions of subsection (4) of this section.”

Although the foregoing provisions allow a window for authoritarian exertion, nothing in the prevailing crisis in Rivers State warrants a declaration of a state of emergency. Even at the zenith of militant exploits, a state of emergency was never declared in the state.

The zero-sum formula that is in action as I have argued in my last piece is driven by the speculative outcome of the 2027 elections. Mr President, your speech declaring a state of emergency betrays your partisanship on the matter. An excerpt from that brief speech corroborates the point being made. You state interalia that: “…it is public knowledge that the Governor of Rivers State for unjustifiable reasons, demolished the House of Assembly of the state as far back as December 13, 2023 and has, up until now, 14 months after, not rebuilt same. I have made personal interventions between the contending parties for a peaceful resolution of the crisis, but my efforts have been largely ignored by the parties to the crisis. I am also aware that many well-meaning Nigerians, Leaders of thought and Patriotic groups have also intervened at various times with the best of intentions to resolve the matter, but all their efforts were also to no avail.”  

A second justification provided by you is the “Supreme Court Judgment’ that declared remediation measures and is public knowledge that the governor has started implementing them. Surprisingly, in the blame, the masquerade behind the crisis, Nyesom Wike, was not mentioned in ways that portray the causation of the crisis as a single factor. The explanation offered by Lateef Fagbemi, SAN, your Attorney-General and Minster of Justice, on Wednesday March 19, provides a third factor for your action.

In a bid to enlighten the public on the propriety of your action, he stated: “Don’t also forget that before now, that is when this government came into office. Nigeria was producing about 900,000 barrels of oil a day. With the efforts and all the ingenuity that the President had, he ensured that the production rose to about 1.5 million barrels per day.

That’s about 45 per cent increase; governors were smiling home at the end of the month with about 60 per cent increase in their take home to their various states. Then somebody rose or encouraged or became inactive when he was supposed to act. There was not a word dissuading the militants who issued this threat”. Afterall, it is all about who takes the golden egg of the delta goose.

Mr President, despite what your cheerleaders may say to you, your action is unpopular, it devalues your political capital. Allegedly, for your ill-advised action to receive a parliamentary stamp, monetary inducement played a role (see Trojan Insight). Overall, all these actions undermine our democracy. Was the state of emergency the only action possible to resolve the crisis in Rivers State, which, to reiterate, is over who controls the resources of Rivers’ people?

No! Consultation with stakeholders in the South-south region and a committee of eminent Nigeria would have resolved the crisis, the path you are now taking is an afterthought. It is a case of putting the cart before the horse. You had hitherto the state emergency, not exhausted all possible remedies. The state of emergency is like a shot in the dark and failed to meet the target.

You would find that you have fatally shot yourself in the foot eventually. May God rein in the crisis. Should powerful non-state actors in the region decide to play the game they know best, your administration is doomed. Let the security advisers tell you the truth about our maritime domain, you will understand the delusional nature of your so-called stern instructions to the security forces. I now turn to my footnote on the Lagos State House of Assembly crisis.

Mr President, your approach to resolving the crisis by imposing an unpopular house leader amounts to the peace of the graveyard. “On your mandate”, which they sang in Abuja during their meeting with you, was deceptively a dirge. When the crisis broke into the public domain, I advised you to allow their action to prevail and re-order the power distribution in the state in the 2027 election. By ignoring my advice, you have blatantly violated the legislative autonomy of the Lagos legislators, and this is the unkindest cut on our democracy.
Professor Akhaine is with the Lagos State University.