UPSC Key: Non-Tariff Barriers, Urban-Rural Migration and Justice Yashwant Varma

US tariffs looming, India looks at easing non-trade barriers, relaxing Chinese FDI

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Main Examination: General Studies II: India and its neighbourhood- relations.

What’s the ongoing story: WITH SOME dialling down of tensions between India and China along the border, policy makers are more open to upgrading bilateral economic relationships now.

Key Points to Ponder:

• Who is India’s largest trade partner?

• What is India’s trade balance with China?

• Discuss the role of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) in international trade.

• How non-tariff barriers (NTBs) impact India’s export competitiveness?

• Examine the challenges India faces in balancing national security concerns with economic interests, particularly in the context of relaxing Chinese FDI norms.

Key Takeaways:

• It is being viewed as an opportune time, particularly when US President Donald Trump is pushing India to the corner on reducing tariffs and forcing it to agree to terms set by Washington, especially on tariffs.

• According to sources aware of developments, discussions are on between departments to dilute or neutralise some of the restrictions on trade and investments that were put in place five years ago after clashes between Chinese and Indian soldiers in Galwan in 2020.

• Some of these proposals have gained traction following industry demands, and include low hanging economic outcomes such as easing of visa restrictions for Chinese personnel and lifting some tariff and non-tariff barriers on imports of consignments.

• Some Chinese apps may be allowed again too, they said. Resumption of flights and issuance of visas to Chinese scholars are proposals
already on the cards, the sources said.

• On the investment front, there are indications the Indian side is now open to allowing inflows from Beijing as a countermeasure to the widening trade deficit between the two countries.

Do You Know:

• According to IBEF Website, Bilateral trade between India and China in FY24 stood at US$ 118.40 billion against US$ 113.83 billion in FY23 with a growth of 4%.

• Bilateral trade between India and China in FY24 stood at $118.40 billion. According to the latest data from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), China has once again become India’s top trading partner in FY24, surpassing the United States after a two-year gap. In FY24, China had a 15 per cent share in India’s total imports. India imported goods worth $675.42 billion from the world, including goods worth $101.74 billion from China.

• In FY24, China had a 15.06% share in India’s total imports. India imported goods worth US$ 675.42 billion from the world, including goods worth US$ 101.74 billion from China.

• THERE IS a growing view in India that entering into a visibly closer dialogue with China on normalising business ties could send out a signal to the US and likely act as a potential hedge. Talks are on to consider diluting some of the restrictions on trade and investments put in place after the Galwan clashes in 2020.
• On the other hand, China occupied only the 22nd position in FDI equity inflows into India, with a cumulative FDI of $2.5 billion from April 2000-September 2024. Growth in bilateral investment has not kept pace with the expansion in trading volumes between the two countries, and there is appetite in Beijing to step up investment flows, sources said. There could be some accommodation on the Indian side, going forward.

• Though trade volumes have grown sharply since 2020, they have also led to the biggest single trade deficit India is running with any country. India’s trade deficit concerns are two pronged: the actual size of the deficit and that the imbalance has continuously been widening year after year to cross $83 billion in 2023. The widening trade deficit with China could be attributed to two major reasons — the narrow basket of commodities, mostly primary, that India exports to China and a number of market access impediments for most of India’s agricultural products and sectors where India has export competitiveness, including pharmaceuticals, IT/ITeS, etc.

• The Economic Survey 2023-24 had also called for India to encourage investments from China, while discouraging imports of finished goods, where the scope of local value addition is very little.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍India, US looking to cut tariffs, boost trade via Bilateral Trade Agreement, says MEA

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering Similar Theme:
1. Which of the following sectors in India have restrictions on FDI from neighboring countries, including China?
1. Telecom sector
2. Defence sector
3. E-commerce sector
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
a) 1 and 2 only
b) 2 and 3 only
c) 1 and 3 only
d) 1, 2, and 3

F-1 visa denials surge to 10-year high, US rejects 41% of foreign student applicants

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Main Examination: General Studies II: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

What’s the ongoing story: Student visa denials by the United States (US) soared to a decade-high last fiscal year (October 2023 to September 2024) with 41% of F-1 visa applications from across all countries turned down — almost double the rejection rate of the 2014 fiscal year — shows an analysis of State Department data by The Indian Express.

Key Points to Ponder:

• What is an F-1 visa?

• Why there is recent surge in F-1 visa denials by the U.S?

• How F-1 visa denials by the U.S. will impact Indian students?

• Discuss the role of visa policies in shaping international student mobility.

• How do such policies impact bilateral relations and global higher education trends?

• What are the economic and diplomatic implications of increased F-1 visa rejections for India and the U.S.?

Key Takeaways:

• In 2023-24, (the US government’s fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30), the US received a total of 6.79 lakh applications for F-1 visas, of which 2.79 lakh (41%) were denied. This is an increase from 2022-23, when 2.53 lakh applications (36%) of a total of 6.99 lakh were turned down.

• While the US State Department did not share data on the country-wise refusal rate for F-1 visas, The Indian Express had reported on December 9 last year that the number of student visas issued to Indians in the first nine months of 2024 had decreased by 38% as compared to the corresponding period in 2023.

Do You Know:

• According to the data, the percentage of student visa denials increased even as the absolute number of applications from across all countries dipped over the last decade. During this period, the total number of applications peaked at 8.56 lakh in 2014-15, but saw a steady dip in the next few years, till it hit a low of 1.62 lakh in the Covid year of 2019-2020.

• Post-Covid, while the number of applications steadily increased, there was a 3% decrease in 2023-24 — from 6.99 lakh in 2022-23 to 6.79 lakh in 2023-24. As a result, the absolute number of visa denials in the last fiscal year (2.79 lakh) represents the highest percentage in at least a decade. A total of 4.01 lakh F-1 visas were issued in 2023-24, down from 4.45 lakh the previous year.

• The F-1 visa is a non-immigrant category for students attending academic institutions in the US, while the M-1 visa covers vocational and non-academic programmes. The Indian Express analysis focussed on F-1 visas, which account for over 90 per cent of US student visas annually.

• Indian students constitute a significant proportion of the international student cohort in the US. The Open Doors 2024 report showed that in 2023-24, the number of Indian students surpassed that of the Chinese, making Indians the largest international student cohort (29.4% of international students) in the US. There were 3.31 lakh Indian students in the US in 2023-24, the highest figure for the Indian cohort so far, according to the Open Doors data.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍How the US is ramping up legal immigration amidst a crackdown on illegal migrants

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering Similar Theme:
2. With reference to the F-1 visa in the United States, consider the following statements:
1. The F-1 visa is issued to international students who wish to pursue academic studies in the U.S.
2. Students on an F-1 visa are allowed to work full-time without restrictions while studying.
3. Optional Practical Training (OPT) allows F-1 visa holders to work temporarily in their field of study after graduation.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
a) 1 and 3 only
b) 2 and 3 only
c) 1 and 2 only
d) 1, 2, and 3

EXPRESS NETWORK

AIMPLB calls for protests against Waqf Amendment Bill

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Indian Polity and Governance-Constitution, Political System, Panchayati Raj, Public Policy, Rights Issues, etc.

Main Examination: General Studies II: Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation.

What’s the ongoing story: The All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) announced a nationwide agitation against the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, 2024, with large sit-ins planned in front of the state assemblies in Patna and Vijayawada on March 26 and 29, respectively, as part of the first phase of the protest.

Key Points to Ponder:

• What is ‘waqf’?

• How are Waqf properties regulated in India?

• Who comprises the Waqf board?

• Is the Muslim personal law board valid in India?

• The Waqf (Amendment) Bill, 2024-know the key features and provisions

• Discuss Waqf (Amendment) Bill, 2024 significance and the concerns raised by various stakeholders?

• The management of Waqf properties in India has been a subject of legal and administrative scrutiny Analyze

• Examine the role of Waqf institutions in India’s socio-economic development.

• How can better governance of Waqf properties contribute to welfare and minority empowerment?

Key Takeaways:

• AIMPLB spokesperson SQR Ilyas said leaders from JD(U), RJD, Congress and Lok Janshakti Party, including Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, have been invited in Patna.

• In Andhra Pradesh, he said, invitations have been sent to the ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP), YSR Congress, Congress and Left parties.
Ilyas expressed gratitude on behalf of the board to all Muslim organisations, civil society groups and leaders from Dalit, Adivasi, OBC and other minority communities.

• He also extended thanks to the opposition parties and members of Parliament who not only participated in large numbers but also firmly rejected the proposed legislation.

• The AIMPLB’s 31-member Action Committee has resolved to adopt all constitutional, legal and democratic means to oppose the bill, which it has described as “controversial, discriminatory, and damaging”.

• As part of the first phase of the agitation, large sit-ins have been planned in front of the state assembly in Patna on March 26 and Vijayawada on March 29. The senior leadership of the AIMPLB, along with representatives of national and state-level religious and social organisations, will participate in these demonstrations, a statement said.

Do You Know:

• The 2024 Bill required every waqf and the property dedicated to the waqf to be registered on a central portal and database, within six months of the law’s commencement. Any “government property” in this database would be flagged to the District Collector who would then “make such inquiry as he deems fit” and submit a report to the state government.

• The JPC accepted an amendment proposed by JD(U) MP Dileshwar Kamait, relaxing the timeline for registering a waqf property, in certain cases, provided the mutawalli provides “sufficient cause for not filing the details of the waqf on the portal”.

• The amended Bill thus gives the Waqf Tribunal the power to extend the timeline in select cases. However, given that the circumstances which can be considered “sufficient”, and the period of extension are not specified, the Tribunal will have to exercise its discretion.

• The JPC also accepted another consequent amendment by BJP MP Dr Radha Mohan Das Agarwal. The 2024 Bill stated that six months after the proposed law’s commencement, no suit, appeals or legal proceedings can be filed by waqfs if they are not registered under the central portal.

• The 2024 Bill gave the District Collector the powers that were previously with the Waqf Tribunal.
The Bill stated that “any government property identified or declared as waqf property, before or after the commencement of the Act, shall not be deemed to be a waqf property.” This determination, however, was to be made by the collector, not the Waqf Tribunal.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Explained: The proposed changes to Waqf law

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering Similar Theme:
3. The Waqf Act in India primarily governs which of the following aspects?
a) Regulation of religious institutions
b) Management of properties dedicated for religious or charitable purposes under Islamic law
c) Administration of mosques and madrassas
d) Implementation of Sharia law in India

THE EDITORIAL PAGE

Migration, after Covid

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Indian and World Geography-Physical, Social, Economic Geography of India and the World.

Mains Examination: General Studies III: Inclusive growth and issues arising from it.

What’s the ongoing story: S Irudaya Rajan, Ajay P Karuvally Writes: Movement from rural to urban centres is restored, international emigration has diversified. Improving migration governance is essential

Key Points to Ponder:

• What data on migration says?

• Human Migration-know in detail

• What is the difference between inter and intra migration?

• What is urban rural migration?

• What are the Push and Pull factors of migration?

• Migration-know its significance

• Migration-What are the challenges?

• What does the term “domestic migrant” mean

• Discuss the key challenges faced by migrant workers during Pandemic.

• What role can digital platforms such as the e-Shram portal and One Nation One Ration Card play in ensuring social security and mobility rights for migrant workers in India?

• Examine the socio-economic impact of reverse migration on rural economies in India.

• What is the difference between climate migration and environmental migration?

Key Takeaways:
S Irudaya Rajan, Ajay P Karuvally Writes:

• The Covid-19 pandemic severely disrupted migration, halting mobility and worsening migrant vulnerabilities. The Covid-19 crisis triggered an unprecedented reverse urban-to-rural migration.

• Government estimates suggest a net reverse migration of 44.13 million during the first lockdown and 26.3 million during the second. These individuals, primarily low-wage, low-skilled, seasonal and short-term migrants, faced significant hardships, including wage theft, acute food insecurity, lack of access to healthcare and education, discrimination, stigma, and instances of brutality. The economic strain to their families, many of whom relied on remittances for survival.

• Five years on, the majority of these migrants have likely had to return to urban areas, bringing back the pre-Covid scenario. The rural economy was unable to absorb the returning workforce with the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) providing only partial and temporary relief.

• Migration to urban centres is expected to remain strong, with projections indicating that 40 per cent of India’s population will reside in cities by 2026. The Indian government continues to encourage migration to urban centres through initiatives such as the Smart Cities Mission, which aims to develop 100 cities into modern urban hubs and relies heavily on migrant labour.

• Indians are also migrating in greater numbers to destinations in Africa driven by factors like the latter’s economic growth, expanding markets, and opportunities in sectors like information technology, manufacturing, and healthcare. However, challenges persist, as shown by the recent ordeal of 47 workers from Jharkhand stranded in Cameroon.

Do You Know:
S Irudaya Rajan, Ajay P Karuvally Writes:

• A study conducted by the International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD) for the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and International Organisation for Migration (IOM) in Odisha found that climate change is significantly impacting agriculture and allied activities, contributing to distress and aspirational out-migration.

• The pandemic also underscored the significance of Indian healthcare workers, who remain in high demand worldwide. Additionally, student migration from India has surged post-pandemic. The Kerala Migration Survey 2023 indicates that the number of student emigrants from Kerala nearly doubled from 1.29 lakh in 2018 to 2.5 lakh in 2023.

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data shows that outward remittances for studies abroad peaked in 2021 at $3,171 million, reflecting a sharp increase in spending on international education. We have also witnessed the student crisis during the Russia-Ukraine war.

• India needs an improved migration regime backed by reliable data. The delay of the 2021 Census and the lack of updated data on migration and demography remains a challenge, making it difficult to assess the pandemic’s long-term impact on migration.

• The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2020-2021 recorded a migration rate of 28.9 per cent, a marginal increase from 28.5 per cent reported in the NSS 64th Round (2007-08). However, this data, collected during the Covid-19 crisis, when migration was in a state of flux, does not accurately represent the long-term shifts in migration patterns.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Five years on, five lessons from Covid lockdowns

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering Similar Theme:
4. Which of the following schemes/policies are directly related to addressing issues faced by migrant workers in India?
1. Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY)
2. Inter-State Migrant Workmen Act, 1979
3. Atmanirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojana
4. Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY)
Select the correct answer using the code below:
a) 1 and 2 only
b) 2 and 3 only
c) 1, 2, and 3 only
d) 1, 2, 3, and 4
Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering Similar Theme:
📍Discuss the changes in the trends of labour migration within and outside India in the last four decades. (2015)

THE IDEAS PAGE

Behind fire & cash, the burning issue

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Indian Polity and Governance

Main Examination: General Studies II: Structure, organization and functioning of the Executive and the Judiciary—Ministries and Departments of the Government; pressure groups and formal/informal associations and their role in the Polity.

What’s the ongoing story: Hitesh Jain Writes: Accountability isn’t the enemy of autonomy, it is a necessary condition. The Justice Varma affair calls for the judiciary to reinforce the message that its integrity is key to its independence.

Key Points to Ponder:

• Who is Justice Yashwant Varma

• Why Justice Yashwant Varma is in news?

• What you know about Justice Varma case?

• Discuss the significance of judicial accountability in ensuring the independence of the judiciary in India.

• The Justice Varma case highlights what?

• The judiciary is expected to remain impartial and independent of political influence—analyse judicial appointments and removals impact this independence.

Key Takeaways:
Hitesh Jain Writes:

• A few days ago, a fire ended up revealing much more than it consumed. A fire reported at the residence of Delhi High Court’s Justice Yashwant Varma led firefighters to discover a “huge pile of cash” at the scene. One would expect that the revelation of vast and unexplained sums of money at the residence of a sitting judge would trigger an immediate, serious inquiry. Instead, the judge was peculiarly, and swiftly, transferred back to the Allahabad High Court by the Supreme Court Collegium

• This episode has re-ignited a far more pressing debate on the fundamentals of India’s judiciary.

• The Collegium publishes no official criteria and there are no recorded discussions or public explanations for appointments, promotions or transfers. For instance, when a judge is overlooked for elevation to the SC, there is no obligation on the Collegium to provide any reasoning.

• We came close to a reform in 2015 with the National Judicial Appointments Commission (NJAC) — a body that sought to introduce transparency and broader representation in judicial appointments. The NJAC, passed overwhelmingly by Parliament and ratified by 20 state legislatures, ensured a balance between judicial independence and democratic accountability. However, soon after it was passed, the reform was struck down by the SC on account of judicial independence.

• Another hotly debated issue is the public disclosure of assets by members of the judiciary. Under the Lokpal and Lokayuktas Act, 2013, public servants are mandatorily required to declare their assets and liabilities, and those of their spouses and dependent children.

Do You Know:

• The collegium system has its genesis in a series of judgments called “Judges Cases”. The collegium came into being through interpretations of pertinent constitutional provisions by the Supreme Court in the Judges Cases.

• First Judges Case: In S P Gupta Vs Union of India, 1981, the Supreme Court by a majority judgment held that the concept of primacy of the Chief Justice of India was not really to be found in the Constitution. It held that the proposal for appointment to a High Court can emanate from any of the constitutional functionaries mentioned in Article 217 and not necessarily from the Chief Justice of the High Court.

• The Constitution Bench also held that the term “consultation” used in Articles 124 and 217 was not “concurrence” — meaning that although the President will consult these functionaries, his decision was not bound to be in concurrence with all of them. The judgment tilted the balance of power in appointments of judges of High Courts in favour of the executive. This situation prevailed for the next 12 years.

• Second Judges Case: In The Supreme Court Advocates-on-Record Association Vs Union of India, 1993, a nine-judge Constitution Bench overruled the decision in S P Gupta and devised a specific procedure called ‘Collegium System’ for the appointment and transfer of judges in the higher judiciary. Underlining that the top court must act in “protecting the integrity and guarding the independence of the judiciary”, the majority verdict accorded primacy to the CJI in matters of appointment and transfers while also ruling that the the term “consultation” would not diminish the primary role of the CJI in judicial appointments.

• Third Judges Case: In 1998, President K R Narayanan issued a Presidential Reference to the Supreme Court over the meaning of the term “consultation” under Article 143 of the Constitution (advisory jurisdiction). The question was whether “consultation” required consultation with a number of judges in forming the CJI’s opinion, or whether the sole opinion of CJI could by itself constitute a “consultation”. In response, the Supreme Court laid down 9 guidelines for the functioning of the coram for appointments and transfers — this has come to be the present form of the collegium, and has been prevalent ever since. This opinion laid down that the recommendation should be made by the CJI and his four senior most colleagues, instead of two. It also held that Supreme Court judges who hailed from the High Court for which the proposed name came, should also be consulted. It was also held that even if two judges gave an adverse opinion, the CJI should not send the recommendation to the government.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍What transpired over 7 days after fire at Delhi HC Justice Varma’s home on March 14 and questions that remain unanswered

📍This Word Means: Collegium

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering Similar Theme:
5. With reference to Indian Judiciary, consider the following statements (UPSC Prelims GS1 2021)
1. Any retired judge of the Supreme Court of India can be called back to sit by the Chief Justice of India with prior permission of the President of India.
2. A High court in India has the power to review its own judgement as the Supreme Court does.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 only
(b) 2 only
(c) Both 1 and 2
(d) Neither 1 nor 2

EXPLAINED

Why some in Meghalaya oppose rail connectivity to state

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Economic and Social Development

Main Examination: General Studies III: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways etc.

What’s the ongoing story: After years of opposition by Khasi pressure groups against rail connectivity to Byrnihat in the Khasi Hills – and subsequently, the state capital Shillong – the Indian Railways is ready to shelve pending railway line projects to these two key locations.

Key Points to Ponder:

• The Indian Railways has faced several challenges in expanding railway projects in Meghalaya—Why?

• Infrastructure projects in ecologically sensitive regions such as Meghalaya often face opposition—Discuss

• How sustainable development can be ensured while implementing railway projects in the Northeast?

• Why do many indigenous communities in Meghalaya oppose railway expansion? Discuss the socio-political and economic factors involved.

• How can better railway connectivity in the Northeast help in improving trade, tourism, and regional integration?

Key Takeaways:

• With this, Shillong will become the only state capital in the country without railway connectivity or an active ongoing rail project underway. New protests have now cropped up in the state’s Jaintia Hills against a recently sanctioned project to bring a railway line to Jowai, the biggest town in the Jaintia Hills.

• A long-standing demand has been the introduction of the Inner Line Permit (ILP) Regime in the state, already in place in neighbouring Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, and most recently, Manipur. The ILP is an official travel document issued by the respective state, authorising the travel of an Indian citizen into a “protected area” for a limited period. An Indian citizen who does not belong to these states cannot stay beyond the time period specified in the ILP.

Do You Know:

• Meghalaya has only one railway station, at Mendipathar in the North Garo Hills, which became operational in 2014. Passenger trains ply between Guwahati and Mendipathar daily, and the station received its first freight shipment last month.

• The first is a 21.5-kilometre line connecting Tetelia railway station in Assam to Byrnihat in Meghalaya’s Ri Bhoi district. This had been sanctioned in 2010. The second project, sanctioned in 2011, is for a 108.76 km line from Byrnihat to Shillong with 10 stations.

• The second project, sanctioned in 2011, is for a 108.76 km line from Byrnihat to Shillong with 10 stations.

• In 2017, the Indian Railways granted Meghalaya Rs. 209.37 crore for land acquisition for these two projects. However, opposition from the Khasi Students’ Union (KSU) has left the project in limbo indefinitely. Chief Minister Conrad Sangma told the state assembly earlier this month that the state has now been asked to return this amount to the Railways since it has been lying unutilised for over seven years.

• A third project, approved in 2023, would connect Chandranathpur station in Assam to Jowai in the East Khasi Hills. The project is at an initial survey stage, but is already facing opposition from Jaintia pressure groups.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍To be launched by Modi, Meghalaya’s first rail link reminds one of 1880s abandoned project

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering Similar Theme:
6. Which of the following are challenges faced by railway infrastructure development in Northeast India?
1. Environmental concerns and impact on biodiversity
2. Opposition from indigenous communities
3. Difficult geographical terrain
4. Lack of government funding
Select the correct answer using the code below:
a) 1, 2, and 3 only
b) 2 and 4 only
c) 1 and 3 only
d) 1, 2, 3, and 4

Crops US hopes to sell to India

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Main Examination: General Studies II: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

What’s the ongoing story: The US has three major crops of interest —soyabean, corn (maize) and cotton — when it comes to securing greater market access in India.

Key Points to Ponder:

• Discuss the implications of increased agricultural imports from the United States on India’s domestic farming sector.

• Examine the role of trade negotiations in shaping agricultural policies between India and the United States.

• How the negotiations between India-US will affect India’s agricultural self-sufficiency and the livelihoods of its farmers?

• How can India balance the need for trade liberalization with the protection of its farmers’ interests?

• Analyze the potential benefits and challenges of allowing greater market access to U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and cotton in India.

Key Takeaways:

• The demand for “opening up” could be all the more with US President Donald Trump threatening to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports from April 2: “We will be charging them the same tariffs they charge us”.

• The US is a huge exporter of all the three commodities, whose combined shipment value peaked at almost $62 billion in 2022 (see table).

• It’s against this context that a new report from the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) economic research service — titled ‘The Growing Demand for Animal Products and Feed in India’ — makes for interesting reading.

• The report projects India’s consumption of animal products — milk, eggs, fish and meat — to increase with rising population and per capita GDP. That would, in turn, drive demand for feed and ultimately the need for substantial imports of ingredients such as corn and soyabean “by the early 2030s”.

• India’s domestic corn consumption is expected to climb from 34.7 million tonnes (mt) in 2022-23 to 98 mt in 2040 and 200.2 mt in 2050 under a scenario of “rapid” income growth (6.6% per year). It would go up less — to 62.8 mt in 2040 and 93 mt in 2050 — if income growth is “moderate” at 4.6% per year. Consumption of soyabean meal is likely to similarly go up from 6.2 mt in 2022-23 to 30.9 mt and 68.3 mt for these years under the “rapid” and to 17.7 mt and 28.3 mt under the “moderate” income growth scenarios.

• The third crop of interest is cotton, where the US was the world’s No. 1 exporter before Brazil overtook it in 2023-24.

Do You Know:

• India’s cotton imports for 2024-25 (October-September) are projected at 3 million bales, surpassing its exports of 1.7 million bales that are a far cry from the all-time-high of 13 million bales achieved in 2011-12.

• The chances of India becoming the biggest market for the US are, perhaps, higher in cotton than in soyabean or corn. And it may be argued that duty-free imports of raw cotton can boost India’s textile and apparel exports to the US itself, which stood at $10.8 billion in 2024.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍How agriculture has become central to the China-US trade war

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering Similar Theme:
7. What is the primary reason for the United States seeking increased access to the Indian agricultural market?
a) To import diverse crop varieties from India
b) To balance the trade deficit between the two countries
c) To introduce genetically modified crops in India
d) To collaborate on agricultural research and development

 

PRELIMS ANSWER KEY

1. (d) 2.(a) 3.(b) 4.(d) 5.(a) 6.(a) 7.(b)

  

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