The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey, administered by Farm Journal Magazine, is sent monthly to agricultural economists nationwide to gauge their perspectives on important drivers of agriculture. The majority of respondents in the March survey agree that the U.S. is currently involved in a trade war. The Trump Administration contends the U.S. is in the driver's seat, and by using tariffs as a negotiating tool, he’ll restore his version of fair trade. Economists point out that in 2024, the U.S. agricultural trade deficit hit a record high, but they point to the consequences the 1930 Smoot Hawley tariffs that raised import duties to protect American businesses and farmers during the 1929 depression. Rather than helping to strengthen economies, the Smoot-Hawley tariffs added to the considerable strain that was already on the international economic climate. Romel Mostafa, professor of business, economics and public policy at the Ivey Business School in London, Ontario, Canada, believes that the winner in a deepening trade war won’t be either the U.S. or Canada, but Brazil. Joseph Glauber, a former USDA chief economist and a research fellow emeritus at the International Food Policy Research Institute, points out that a multiple-front trade war would be, “quite disturbing for American agriculture." He notes that China had two years of large agricultural purchases from the U.S. starting in 2021, with $32.8 billion and in 2022, with $38.1 billion, but in 2024, China's imports from the U.S. have slowed down. Brazil now has 70% of the Chinese soybean market and the U.S. has 20%. "So, all of the import growth we've seen in China since then has been essentially enjoyed by Brazil, and that country has added around 11 million acres of soybean production since 2022. The University of Illinois Farm Doc Daily, warns that Brazil has the potential to convert as much as 70 million acres of grazing land to corn and soybean production, which would further erode the U.S. export potential.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows there have been 413 drug seizure events involving fentanyl on the southern border in fiscal year 2025, with the last three months having fewer fentanyl seizures than in those months the year before. But there appears to be a new scourge coming across the border lately. There’s been over five and a half thousand interceptions of, fresh eggs, raw chicken, and live birds coming in into the U.S. from Mexico.
Last Thursday, the White House issued an executive order directing departments and agencies to work with the newly created National Energy Dominance Council, led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, to identify and prioritize mining projects to boost domestic production of a number of minerals – including potash. Canadian January potash exports hit a record as U.S. buyers anticipated U.S. imposed tariffs this year. Canada is the world’s largest exporter of potash, accounting for just over 41% of global exports. But Josh Linville, vice president of the fertilizer department at Stone X Group Inc., an American financial services company, suggests that efforts to strengthen U.S. domestic fertilizer production should focus more on phosphate than potash, since in the long-term, the U.S. is at greater risk of potash oversupply than under supply, and also, “Our biggest global producer and exporter in the world is literally just to the north of us, producing over 21 million tons, while global supplies are already adequate, and there are more potash projects scheduled to come online.”
While the Snotel reports for the San Miguel, Dolores , Animas and San Juan River Basins indicate the snowpack is 73% of normal, the Drought Monitor for the Four Corners Region indicates Moderate drought. The National Weather Service is forecasting that the region will see warmer than normal temperatures from April to June and the likelihood of below normal precipitation. Montezuma Valley Irrigation Company has set the water allocation at two acre feet per share, which is 50% of full supply. However, while taking soil core samples in my hay fields and pastures recently, I’ve found that there is adequate moisture to get forage growth started when the soil warms up.
Benjamin Franklin wrote, “Tis easy to see, hard to foresee.”
