Good morning!
Quiet overnight grain trade... Grain markets traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, with corn and soybeans favoring the upside early this morning while wheat is weaker. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading steady to a penny higher, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents higher and wheat futures are fractionally to a penny lower. The U.S. dollar index is modestly firmer and front-month crude oil futures are around 65 cents higher.
Trump may implement copper import tariffs sooner than anticipated... U.S. tariffs on copper imports could be coming within several weeks, months earlier than the deadline for a decision, people familiar with the situation told Bloomberg. President Donald Trump in February directed the Commerce Department to open an investigation into potential copper tariffs and submit a report within 270 days, though it’s now expected to be resolved sooner, said the people. Trump has threatened to impose a duty of as much as a 25% on all copper imports. The news fueled copper futures to an all-time high.
Trump doesn’t want ‘too many’ exemptions from coming tariffs... President Trump said he plans to limit exceptions to the planned April 2 reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners. “I know there are some exceptions, and it’s an ongoing discussion, but not too many, not too many exceptions,” Trump said in an interview with Newsmax. “No, I don’t want to have too many exceptions.” Trump has promised a sweeping tariff announcement next Wednesday, touting it as a “Liberation Day” against trading partners he has long accused of “ripping off” the United States.
U.S./EU trade talks yield no breakthrough as tariffs deadline looms... EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic met with key U.S. officials — including Commerce Secretary Lutnick, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and National Economic Council Director Hassett — on Tuesday in a last-ditch effort to prevent new U.S. tariffs on EU goods set to take effect next week. According to Reuters, the outcome of the meeting remains “unclear,” with Sefcovic stating, “The hard work goes on,” and reiterating the EU’s call for a “fair, balanced deal.” This was the third round of talks, following two previous sessions that failed to shift President Trump’s plans to hike import duties in response to what he views as unfair foreign trade practices. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal editorial board urged the EU to avoid escalation, warning that retaliatory moves — particularly led by France — could backfire economically. “Think of it as the dumb-and-dumber trade war,” the editorial said, adding that while Trump’s protectionism is damaging, EU retaliation could hurt both sides significantly.
Barshefsky: China’s trade surplus too big to ‘live with’... China is running a trade surplus the world economy can’t “live with,” former President Bill Clinton’s top trade official Charlene Barshefsky said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “China is exploiting manufacturing, suppressing domestic consumption, and expects that the world can live with a trillion dollar Chinese trade surplus, which most certainly the world cannot.” Barshefsky, who negotiated the terms of China’s accession to the World Trade Organization more than two decades ago, said that agreement was “absolutely not” a mistake. However, China’s convergence toward “market-based norms” has reversed course as domestic reforms stalled, she said. It leaned increasingly on investment in manufacturing to drive growth and began to flood the market with exports. That’s “not what the world needs — we don’t have a supply problem in the world, we have a demand problem,” she said.
U.S. expands export restrictions list... The U.S. added 70 entities, including those from China, Iran and Pakistan, to its export restrictions list, according to a notice in the Federal Register on Tuesday. The entities, including over 50 from China, were found to be acting contrary to the national security or foreign policy of the U.S., according to the notice. China’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that it strongly condemns the blacklisting of entities and urged Washington to stop generalizing the concept of national security.
USDA refocuses rural energy programs to align with Trump’s agenda... USDA late Tuesday announced it will release previously obligated funding for rural energy initiatives, including REAP, New ERA, and PACE programs. Applicants now have 30 days to voluntarily revise their proposals to align with President Trump’s Unleashing American Energy Executive Order. This move allows recipients to strip out Biden-era DEIA and climate requirements, emphasizing domestic energy production and rural economic priorities. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins stated the shift underscores a broader realignment away from the Inflation Reduction Act that she said, “delivered more bureaucracy than benefits for rural families” and toward practical investments that serve America’s farmers, ranchers, and small businesses. See full details.
ADM reduces grain trading division... Archer-Daniels-Midland is making a fresh wave of job cuts this week at its largest unit, the grain trading and oilseed processing division, three sources briefed on the matter told Reuters. It was not immediately clear if the latest layoffs are part of ADM’s announcement in February it would cut up to 700 jobs and reduce costs by $500 million to $750 million over the next three to five years or additional staffing reductions. The new wave of cuts began at ADM’s Swiss office, which is its European headquarters, one source said. The cuts would be disruptive to ADM’s agricultural services and oilseeds business, said another source.
India will allow mills to export sugar permitted for this year... India will not restrict mills from exporting the 1 MMT of sugar permitted through September, sources told Reuters, squelching speculation that falling output estimates for the current year would prompt authorities to curb overseas sales. Despite falling production forecasts, India has more than enough stocks to meet domestic consumption and ethanol requirements, which is why the government has decided that mills would be allowed to export sugar, the sources said. After exporting 1 MMT of sugar this season, mills are expected to begin the new season on Oct. 1 with carryover stocks of 5.4 MMT.
PBOC advisor: China has ‘very big’ policy room to spur growth... China wields significant policy room to stimulate its economy this year while some reform was needed to boost consumption, Huang Yiping, an advisor to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and a professor at Peking University, told Reuters. Macro policies will help tackle cyclical problems, while some structural challenges could be resolved in the future, he said. Some reform measures, including those to increase people’s incomes and confidence, are needed to boost consumption, on top of recent moves unveiled by the government, Huang said. Policymakers have put expanding domestic demand, especially consumption, as the top priority this year as they try to cushion the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs on its crucial exports.
UK inflation slows more than expected... British consumer inflation slowed to 2.8% above year-ago in February, while core inflation eased to 3.5% -- both came in below expectations. However, economists warned that rising energy prices will push inflation up again soon.
Bullish beef stocks data... USDA’s Cold Storage Report showed 428.1 million lbs. of beef in frozen storage at the end of February, down 27.0 million lbs. from January versus the five-year average decline of 10.6 million pounds. Beef inventories declined 9.9 million lbs. (2.3%) from February 2024 and 69.2 million lbs. (13.9%) from the five-year average. Pork stocks totaled 423.1 million lbs., up 15.9 million lbs. from January, slightly less than the five-year average increase of 17.9 million lbs. for the month. Pork stocks declined 35.5 million lbs. (7.7%) from year-ago and 94.8 million lbs. (18.3%) from the five-year average. While beef stocks were bullish, price response is likely to be limited as the market doesn’t typically actively trade this data.
Choice beef remains on a tear... Choice boxed beef prices surged another $8.09 to $335.19 on Tuesday, continuing the recent sharp price climb. Select beef firmed 47 cents to $314.05. Choice beef has surged $24.42 since Feb. 21 to the highest level since June 2023. However, packer margins remain deep in the red as gains in wholesale beef have been more than offset by record cash prices.
Pork cutout firms but eases from intraday gains... Pork cutout topped $100.00 in morning trade on Tuesday, fueled by a $19.39 surge in primal bellies, but finished the day up just 18 cents to $97.55 as belly prices pulled back from their intraday high and all other cuts except picnics weakened. Still, pork cutout is supporting the CME lean hog index, which is up 11 cents to $88.90 as of March 24.
Overnight demand news... Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT of corn expected to be sourced from the United States. The Philippines purchased an unspecified volume of Australian feed wheat. South Korea tendered to buy up to 280,000 MT of corn – 140,000 MT to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa and 140,000 MT to be sourced from South America or South Africa. Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 9:30 a.m. Weekly Ethanol Production — EIA
- 2:00 p.m. Broiler Hatchery — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Peanut Stocks and Processing — NASS