Confusion and uncertainty. Those are two words being used by California agricultural exporters with farm products caught up in an escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and its biggest trading partners.
President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs in February on China, which countered with tariffs on U.S. goods and other retaliatory measures. Trump’s tariff orders included Canada and Mexico, though he later put those tariffs on hold, restarted them in March, then revised them to exempt certain imports. He also imposed 25% levies on all foreign steel and aluminum, resurrecting a policy from his first term.
Like China, Canada and the European Union imposed reciprocal tariffs, with the EU duties to take effect in April. Mexico said it has planned retaliatory measures, but they have not been implemented.
“I think it mostly still continues to be confusion rather broadly since there are so many moving pieces here,” said Matthew Viohl, a federal policy director for the California Farm Bureau, which has been tracking the constantly changing trade developments.
Ali Amin, a Kern County pistachio grower and processor who also operates Los Angeles-based Primex International Trading Corp., a distributor of tree nuts and dried fruits, described the president’s wavering tariffs on Canada and Mexico as “almost like a ping-pong negotiation.”
“That’s the confusion part,” he said. “Nobody knows how to react to it.”
More immediately, importers who have purchased product that has not yet shipped will have to contend with a higher price due to the tariffs, he said, and they will have to pass on the increases to their customers, oftentimes retailers.
“That’s a reverberation that goes all the way to the shelf,” Amin said.
The new Chinese tariffs add to existing duties on tree nuts, making the products even more expensive. Amin said he thinks sales of pistachios will take a greater hit in the tariff wars because most pistachios are for snacking, unlike almonds and walnuts, which are often used in products such as candy bars. Product manufacturers have less purchasing flexibility because they need their ingredients, he said.
Though almonds are not on Canada’s retaliatory tariffs list, Robert Rocha, sales manager for P-R Farms, a Fresno County almond grower, packer and shipper, said he’s concerned about souring Canadian sentiments about the U.S. sparked by Trump’s trade policies and his promises to annex the North American ally. He noted recent reports of consumer boycotts of U.S. products and Canadian retailers removing U.S. products from store shelves.
“The consumer is the king,” he said. “Will their buying practices change? They’re the ones that decide.”
With most of the company’s 2024 crop sold, Rocha said his concern is for this year’s crop if trade relations don’t improve, “being that we have to ship and export a lot of our almonds to other countries.” About two-thirds of the state’s almond crop is destined for foreign markets.
The company used to do more business in China but has had to shift to other markets because of tit-for-tat tariffs between the U.S. and the Asian nation from Trump’s first term — tariffs that the Biden administration continued. Rocha said he’s thankful there were other markets such as India and the EU to move to, but he worries those markets could now be affected.
One saving grace, Rocha said, has been the weakening dollar, which helps American products be more price competitive against other currencies. Looking ahead to the upcoming crop, he acknowledged he may need to pivot again — perhaps by trying to sell more to the domestic market — if export sales dip.
As an importer and exporter of agricultural products and foods, Jim Geller, president of Geller International in San Mateo County, said he’s worried about how and what he’ll be able to ship this year to Hong Kong, one of his main markets. The additional Chinese duties on American meat, poultry and other farm products could prompt his buyers to source from Australia and elsewhere, he said.
“We have no strategy because of the uncertainty,” he said. “I don’t know what to do because I don’t know what Trump’s position is week by week and neither do people overseas.”
For California’s wine sector, there was already uncertainty about where the market would land as more growers remove vineyards to try to balance supply with demand. Tariffs now add another layer of uncertainty on top, said Glenn Proctor, Sonoma County winegrape grower and partner of Ciatti, a wine and grape brokerage firm.
Like Rocha, the almond exporter, Proctor said he, too, is concerned about “Canadians saying we’re pulling all the American alcohol off the shelf.”
“Even if the tariffs don’t happen, the threat of the tariffs changes their perception about us,” he said. “I think idle threats can still have negative effects on how people view us.”
Agricultural products affected by Canada’s 25% retaliatory tariff include wine, citrus fruit, apricots, cherries, peaches, melons, fresh tomatoes, milk and dairy products, and poultry.
Proctor said while buyers have not necessarily backed out of deals, the uncertainty created by the on-again-off-again tariffs “has slowed decisions because nobody really knows.” People who were looking to make bulk purchases, for example, have put on the brakes, he said, saying, “it doesn’t make sense for me to make a commitment.”
Because most of the state’s fresh fruits are not yet in season, Caroline Stringer, trade director for the California Fresh Fruit Association, said there has so far not been too much direct impact from the Canadian tariffs.
Canada and Mexico remain the top two export markets for many California fruits, she noted, and any impacts on those markets “would be pretty serious.” California doesn’t ship much fresh fruit to the EU. China used to be a big market, she said, but many exporters shifted away from shipping to China due to tariffs from previous trade disruptions.
Though association members support the president’s objective of making trade fair and balanced, Stringer said recent discussions of a six-month period for reconfiguring trade would not work for perishable commodities, as “six months is the season” for fresh fruits. She said the association is trying to highlight this point in discussions with policymakers and elected representatives in Washington, D.C.
“There is uncertainty, and growers, packers, shippers like certainty; every business does,” Stringer said. “We’re all waiting to see what’s going to play out.”
With Mexico being the biggest exporter of avocados to the U.S., Charley Wolk, a San Diego County avocado grower, said the 25% tariff on Mexican imports could lead to less fruit coming from the southern neighbor, which would benefit California growers.
Considering less than 1% of the state’s total walnut shipments went to China during the past couple years, the California Walnut Commission in a statement to Ag Alert® characterized the Chinese levies on U.S. walnuts as having “limited impact today.” What’s more, nearly all the 2024 crop has been sold or committed.
Even so, the commission said it does “anticipate that we may have some disruptions, and exporters and importers will have to navigate through these unknowns.”
Though there’s not much left of the old crop to sell, Bill Carriere, a Glenn County walnut grower, processor and shipper, said he’s still uneasy about prospects for the 2025 crop if tariffs remain in place come July or August. There’s also concern about equipment and materials he imports from China, India and Europe, including packaging, bags and sorters, all of which could face import duties if trade issues are not resolved.
“I’m nervous about it, but I’m not panicking yet and not really changing much because I don’t know,” he said. “But we need to get this settled.”