Africa to reach global warming threshold in 15 years – Study

Africa is on track to surpass the 1.5°C global warming threshold – the limit for the average temperature increase set by the Paris Agreement to contain global warming – in a mere 15 years, even under the most optimistic low-emission scenarios, new research published in the CABI Digital Library reveals.

The study, which emphasises the role of research and innovation in climate mitigation, conducted by scientists from the University of Zimbabwe and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Kenya, highlights the urgent need for just transition pathways to help Africa’s agricultural systems adapt to a warming planet – while also building resilience and reducing emissions.

Despite contributing less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, Africa is set to experience climate change impacts faster and more severely than other regions.

The research shows that all five subregions of the continent – Northern, Western, Central, Eastern, and Southern Africa – will exceed the critical 1.5°C threshold by 2040, posing grave risks to food security, poverty reduction and sustainable development.

Adaptation measures insufficient

Professor Paul Mapfumo, the vice-chancellor of the University of Zimbabwe and lead author of the study, warns that these shifting climate conditions threaten both humanity and ecological systems while deepening social injustices.

“African agriculture-based livelihood systems will be invariably the most affected because of their reliance on climate-sensitive agriculture and limited adaptive capacity due to low economic development, linked primarily to historical contingency.

“The study underscores that existing adaptation measures are insufficient to cope with the accelerating pace of climate change. Incremental changes alone will not be enough – Africa needs transformative strategies to safeguard its agricultural sector and rural communities,” Mapfumo said in a news statement by CABI (the Centre for Agriculture and Bioscience International), which is an international, intergovernmental, not-for-profit organisation that provides scientific information about agriculture and the environment.

Funded by the African Group of Negotiators Experts Support (AGNES), the study reflects a growing recognition of the need for home-grown solutions to tackle climate change in Africa and the need for collaboration.

Laura Cramer, a co-author of the study who is from the ILRI, said that the findings are important for informing the national adaptation plans and international funding mechanisms.

“It is important to downscale the scenarios and look at what will happen on this continent where there are so many vulnerable people. The effects of climate change will not be felt evenly across the globe, and this study shows that Africa will be hit harder and have a higher rate of temperature increase than other regions,” she told University World News.

‘Reprogramming’ of agricultural systems needed

To protect agriculture and livelihoods, the scientists propose a just transition framework tailored to Africa’s unique challenges and opportunities.

This framework emphasises sustainable agricultural practices that, not only enhance food security and reduce poverty, but also optimise climate mitigation efforts. Key to this transition is the “reprogramming” of Africa’s cropping, livestock and fishery systems to make them climate-proof.

According to the researchers, this should involve investing in science, technology and innovation to create climate-resilient crop varieties, improving water management, and developing technologies that reduce agriculture’s carbon footprint.

Additionally, they stress the importance of restoring neglected crops and livestock breeds that are naturally more adaptable to Africa’s changing climate, regenerating soil fertility, and reversing land degradation to boost agricultural productivity.

Given the urgency of climate adaptation, Cramer said that several initiatives are under way to help African universities improve the capacity of students and researchers to tackle the challenges of climate adaptation.

Initiative to improve climate adaptation

Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) and the Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM) have already developed several modules on climate-smart agriculture and climate information services that universities can implement.

AICCRA has also supported four universities in Kenya to develop climate curricula outside of the formal academic system. AGNES has trained about 1,000 professionals since 2020 through its Climate Leadership Programme.

The four universities are Murang’a University of Technology, Taita Taveta University, Laikipia University, and Chuka University. They have designed and implemented university curricula for agricultural extension systems, building foundational knowledge and skills to manage climate risk and empower students.

At the four universities, for instance, students have demonstration farms that act as learning sites for both students and farmers to bridge the gap between the theory and practice of climate-smart agriculture technologies.

At these sites, students gain hands-on learning experiences, allowing them to apply what they’ve learned in the classroom to real-world situations, a practical approach that is effective in engaging students and enhancing their learning experience.

“Universities can engage in science-policy dialogues and platforms to share evidence and help in formulating robust policies. Providing evidence that can be used to inform budgeting processes is also key for policy implementation. This is a role that universities can play in bridging the gap between research and real-world policy implementation,” Cramer explained.

Other measures

The study also highlights the need to protect natural ecosystems and biodiversity, expand access to education and climate-smart farming knowledge, and strengthen market access and trade infrastructure to improve economic resilience.

Mapfumo added that these efforts should align with a broader vision of mechanising and greening Africa’s agriculture through a ‘Green Industrial Revolution’. This would involve scaling up climate-smart agricultural technologies and transitioning towards renewable energy-powered farming practices, ensuring sustainability lies, not only in adapting agricultural methods, but also in transforming education systems and research capacities to drive long-term economic development.

Ultimately, the scientists emphasise that the developed just transition framework offers opportunities for social inclusion, equity, building capacity for self-mobilisation and self-organisation of communities for climate action.

They believe that, by investing in transition pathways, including investment in higher education, Africa can create a future in which agriculture contributes, not only to food security, but also to poverty reduction and carbon neutrality.

“Sustainability of climate change responses and a just transition pathway framework for Africa also lie in the corresponding transformation of education systems and research capacities tailored to drive economic development for Africa as the continent edges closer to the 1.5°C threshold,” Mapfumo said.

Cramer said: “African institutions can collaborate more effectively with international bodies to ensure that research findings like these influence global climate policies rather than just remaining academic discussions by training experts to act as knowledge brokers and engage in communicating the available critical science. AGNES has done an excellent job of building the capacity of experts and climate negotiators from across Africa to engage in international policy discussions.”