reveal. I'm joined by WJCL Chief Meteorologist Jeremy Nelson. I'm West to meteorologist Eric Burst. Jeremy, you and I have been hard at work for months discussing hurricane forecasts. So let's just kind of start off with discussing the process that we've gone through here. Yeah, I would say the last several weeks have been very busy and we want to thank everyone who's joining us this morning. This is sort of our, I guess, release party. We do this each and every year. Eric and I have teamed up for about 5 years now, uh, with our long range hurricane season forecast. We've had *** tremendous amount of success, and we're about to bring you the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and our forecast is *** little bit different. We try to go into *** little more detail, give you some of the important information. To help you get ready for the season ahead. I would also say that this is one of the, if not the earliest hurricane season forecasts that you're going to find, right? And so I think that that's at least important to note. Um, we, we really don't touch it once it's set. We just kind of, you know, we've got *** pretty good idea of the overall atmospheric pattern, um, and, and it's not just your normal forecast we're identifying how many storms. We're also looking at hotspots and even dates, Jeremy as well. Yeah, I think when, uh, when people look at forecasts, they want more than just the numbers because the numbers don't really speak to you because you could have *** season with maybe 234 systems. It's kind of where the uh hotspot would be per se, which we'll talk about for this season in *** minute, but, uh, people need *** little more detail, and I, I think they expect that nowadays we have some awesome technology. Uh, our method sort of allows us to go in depth *** little bit more so. It's time to talk about the season ahead, I think. Yeah, so first off, for right now, super glad to say there's there's absolutely nothing out there, um, no development expected over the next 7 days, but, uh, you know, before we get into our forecast, Jeremy, probably *** good idea to just look ahead to the different names that we've got set for this year. Yeah, and we'll start off with Andrea, and then we go all the way down to Wendy. And if you make it to Nestor, which would be the 14th storm of the season, that's an average hurricane season you see typically about 14 named storms. Right. All right. So that said, this is *** look at last year's hurricane forecast. areas highlighted in red were the areas we highlighted as hotspots and then those kind of Um, bluish lines, those are the actual tropical storm tracks. Um, obviously, we knew that the Gulf was going to be the absolute hotspot last year, and you can see the Gulf was the hotspot indeed, uh, with 3 landfalls from about the Big Bend of Florida over to, of course, the Sun Coast. There was Louisiana, and then, of course, Texas. 85% of the storms last year, Jeremy moved where and when we had discussed. Yeah, so 5 out of 6 landfalls. Remember Debby made 2 landfalls in the Big Bend and then it curved back out near Savannah. It made *** trip up to South Carolina. So that was 2 landfalls. We had Francine, Beryl, Milton, and also Helene. So we had some powerful hurricanes last season. We had coastal impacts. And I think overall our forecast did *** great job of highlighting 5 out of the 6 landfalls. Right. So then it means it's time for us to look ahead to this year and just kind of get an idea of what's to come. And there were, um, probably 4 major parts of the pattern this year, Jeremy, but uh we've kind of got it it got *** little complicated and so that's why when you look at this, you're going to see 5 areas of low pressure. So why don't, why don't you discuss kind of um this. Set up and then I'll get into the hotspots. OK, so I mean, first off, I'm unapologetically, the method we use, I've used it for 18 years. Uh, one key ingredient of our forecast, uh, is forecast method called the LRC. So what we're looking at right here are storm systems from sort of fall into winter that we have identified. We've seen them cycle, and they're over higher interest areas of the Atlantic basin where. The Caribbean to the Gulf, that's where these lows are at. And we also pick out areas that have cycled back during winter cycles and then we're projecting forward. So these are sort of our key systems of interest. Yeah, yeah. So that said, we've got those features that leads us to this, our 2025 hurricane season forecast hotspots and by far and away. This is *** golf year. There is *** ton of activity over the last few months that we have tracked in the Gulf, and while it may be *** little sloppier than normal in terms of strength, in terms of strength of signals, by far and away, the Gulf is going to be our hot spot, Jeremy, this season. Yeah, and I think as we go through the season, and we'll explain our, our thoughts here coming up and we'll break down some of the storm timing, but everything we looked at. Continue to point towards the Gulf, continue to point towards the Gulf, and we're going to uh be highlighting some things from last fall. We showed you the broad picture of those lows, and then we'll get into *** little more detail coming up. So some people already know they're gonna say, hey, anyone can just say the golf is *** hot spot, but then I think what we're going to do here is take it *** step further and show you. Um, some of the detailed timing and why we really think that. So we could have highlighted maybe *** little bit of the Southeast or the East Coast, but when you and I talked, it was probably just closer to average versus the Gulf, which we think is uh higher than average chance of seeing. Landfalling systems and I know in my write up I said probably landfalls for that area highlighted in red. We're going to see I had at least 23 or even more in that area. I would agree. And if I had to say of that area of red, who has the kind of highest threats, um, at least in terms of what we're seeing, Jeremy, my suspicion would be from about Louisiana to the Florida panhandle as being the real area of that interest. Yeah, and I mean that was an almost like *** highway of low pressure areas at times uh in the patterns, so. Um, I think everyone in the red there really needs to pay attention this hurricane season, and there are definitely some higher chances embedded within that red. And then even for areas of the southeast coast to the mid-Atlantic, you have to pay attention. We're not saying that there's no chance of anything there, but we'll go through the pattern here and then we'll talk about kind of each. Are we identified individually and uh kind of what it may mean. Yeah. So, we, we know that the Gulf is going to absolutely be our area of, of, of peak interest, right? So then let's take it *** step further and just kind of get an idea of the overall setup that we're in, OK? This is *** look at water temperature anomalies, right? So, just looking in there, where are the abnor Normally warmest temps, there, at least for now in the central Gulf. But notice, it's not only the Gulf, it's the Atlantic, it's the Caribbean. All basins here are running above average, and Jeremy, while we're currently in *** weak La Nina, the overall idea here is that we should trend neutral, and then even perhaps back to *** weak La Nina, um, looking ahead to kind of the peak of season. Yeah, so we obviously, we, we look at all kinds of different things. We have the method we use to identify the pattern, the cycle, projecting forward. We also in our ingredients, uh, if you're sort of have *** recipe here, another ingredient is sea surface temperatures, which Eric was just showing there. So right now the Gulf as *** whole is uh running above average and then also the Caribbean, I don't even know if there was one pocket there that really jumped out that had below average sea surface temperatures, so that might be. *** half *** degree to 2 to 3 degrees above average right now and there are parts of the Gulf that are solid 3 degrees above average. The little area of blue, uh, in the eastern Gulf is from that system that just moved by kind of displacing some of the surface water. So we think just in the next few days or even today when that map updates, uh, it could be filling in. To more average or trending above average in the next week. Well, and this is kind of, this is *** this is an interesting way to look at that data. So this is the daily sea surface temperature kind of trends, OK? This is showing the Atlantic, and we can get into the Gulf, we can get into, you know, different bodies of water. But if you just look at this, OK, and I'm gonna zoom this in here, all right? What you're looking at there in red, the red shade is our current temperature, OK? So, in the Atlantic Maine development region, the last reading we got, the average temperature was 25.87 °C. Third place, highest on record. Second place would be 2010 26.41 °C, and the highest on record would be last year, 26.53. So 26.53, 25.87. So we're within *** degree of all-time record high, and that's that's the main development region if we look at the Gulf here. And I'm, I'm gonna say this, and, and I, I don't type it says Gulf of Mexico. I'm, I'm just assuming that it has not been updated. We're not getting into the names of it, but just to show you again, another basin here, uh, we're probably running fifth place. Current Gulf temperature, 23.86, all-time record was 2018 at 24.56. So we're within *** degree of all-time record highs, and those dashed lines you see there, those dashed lines are um the the Kind of averages for the different basins, right? So, if we, if we go back to Just the, the broad scope, you can very clearly see that during the month of March here, the month of March is when we usually start to bring those temperatures up. So, when you think about it too, Jeremy, we're issuing our forecast when the basin temperatures are essentially at their all-time lowest, right? And I think that that's kind of interesting. It's gonna be in this next month, 2 months that we start to warm things up and start to see convection perhaps starting to build. Yeah, and one thing we just compared this year to last year at this time, and we see overall in the Atlantic basin *** lot less blue or below average water temperatures. So, uh, we've so far kind of identified the pattern we've talked about. The systems of interest and then we've overlaid that with the sea surface temperatures that are above average right now and that was something that really jumped out at us that an area where we think there'll be probably the most low pressure areas, the most troughs of low pressure. is going to be paired up with likely some of the warmest water we have in the basin. So based on that, then, let's talk about storm numbers for this year, and it's not all that different than what we issued last year. 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 majors is the average. We're forecasting 16 to 20 named storms, 8 to 10 hurricanes, and 4 to 6 major hurricanes, and I think looking Back at our analog years or years that had *** very similar uh dynamic, you know, you, you had talked about 2017, we had talked about 1984. There were several years even back into the 1960s that I found. Uh, Jeremy, it seemed like those years definitely liked to be active. We're not calling for ***, you know, hyper mega super active season, but definitely trending on *** more active side of things. Yeah, and with how many systems we saw, whether it was Caribbean Gulf, um, sometimes our analysis, uh, we just uh broad brush the, the open waters of the Atlantic because we're really focused in on, um, impacts and how it could, uh, um. Impact us as we go through the season from June 1st to November 30th, and when we're looking at the numbers here, we really felt that an active season is ahead of us once again and those numbers definitely support that. They're not *** lot different than last year and I know when we come up with our numbers, what we do is Eric will write down his. I'll write down mine after we have our analysis, *** little chat, and our numbers were within one of each other. Yeah, yeah, they were, they were, and I use paper too, which, which I always tease Jeremy because he, you know, I use Microsoft Excel for most, but you know yeah, yeah, I already threw mine in the recycle bin, but, but yes, point being is, is our numbers were. Right on with each other. And, and to that point, you know, our main features of the overall weather pattern were as well. So I think that that we have *** good agreement, right, on the hotspots and on the timelines. Um, it's just this year, this year was *** little sloppier I think than others. So let's let's talk *** little bit about that and then we can get into the different parts of the pattern. OK, so when you say sloppier, I think one thing is we noticed so many areas of low pressure. That's one. And then 2 with the method we use, the cycle duration we found to be *** bit quicker this year. So we're seeing things move through *** little bit quicker, *** little bit faster, and *** little more often. So instead of uh seeing things cycle through last year we were closer to probably upper 40s at times around 50, this time we're. Uh, maybe 789 days quicker. Yeah. And, and that that makes that makes *** difference. So the first hotspot, um, is an area that we had identified starting on October 20th, OK? This was tied to Oscar for last year. We're kind of highlighting the coastline from about the Lake Charles-ish area all the way over to the Big Bend of Florida, and then we have to show the keys as well in this part of the pattern because of um the interest from Oscar itself. Yeah, so this was, I, you're gonna have *** couple of these sort of like *** two part thing. October 20th we had in 20 it was really the 19th, the 21st. Oscar was uh near Turks and Caicos, then down towards eastern Cuba, and then sort of uh weekend lifted north, uh, maybe brushing by the southeastern Bahamas. So that's why we have around the Keys highlighted that stayed the east of that area, but it was very close and you're like, well then why do you have the Northern Gulf highlighted? So in future cycles, there was *** low pressure at the same time that went across the northern Gulf. So that's why those two areas are highlighted in red and then you fast forward and those are sort of your potential return dates or time frames of interest in the season ahead. And I think that that's also another reason I keep saying the word sloppy and I need to come up with synonyms for it, right, is because you had these little two parters and *** good. Example of last year, the one storm that moved into Texas was *** two-parter. We had watched kind of two areas of low pressure, barrel it zagged instead of zigged and, and so in this case, you know, you've got the two parts there with the Northern Gulf and then uh back over to like the Florida Keys. So this was associated with the Oscar, um, definitely an interesting area of low pressure. And then what was also interesting is like *** week. Later, we ended up with this kind of October twenty-sixth area of low pressure, and notice there too, you've got Louisiana back over toward the Florida West Coast, but there was also *** piece of energy that wanted to sneak over towards South Texas. Yeah, and *** lot of times during our analysis, we were finding these lows were kind of like central or Western Gulf, some of them coming up like this one that we're talking about. So the development at times got *** little bit close to Texas and sometimes early in the season instead of uh getting picked up by *** trough or something, these systems just kind of meander their way *** little bit more to the west. It's something we've noticed over the last several years, early season. So with that low being so close to that area of Texas and then down into Mexico, that's why we got that little bit of red there, but this is probably *** little bit more of *** northern into the eastern part of the Gulf, and you can see those potential return dates and something we always stress to people are we expecting *** big blockbuster hurricane every single potential return date? No. Typically what happens is you see the reflection in maybe *** couple parts of that pattern and then potentially. ***, *** tropical system developed, but we've mentioned those dates because tropical development when we're in the season, uh, definitely is *** possibility. If you, if you remember back to last year, um, when we were going through our return dates, it ended up that Debbie and Helene were in the same part of the pattern. We also highlighted Francine, which moved in, uh, to Louisiana. We also had, uh, the barrel part of the pattern. Highlighted that one went *** little more west, but it was within our, within the dates. It was just outside of our hotspots. So when we look at these dates, these are time frames for you to watch as we go through the season. Does not mean big blockbuster hurricane every single return date, but the odds are very good that we'll see *** reflection in the pattern and the potential is there for tropical development. And I think that, you know, using the term. Reflection. I think that that's *** really good way to identify it, Jeremy. I would also point out for my viewers here in Florida, this is the part of the weather pattern that stands out to me as my biggest threat, right? Um, just kind of watching as it cycled through over and over again. So, um, June 23rd through the 29th, we'll have to watch again. Does that mean *** big blockbuster hurry? You don't know. But, but does that mean that we'll probably see some Sort of energy each time, I, I would suspect so. Um, August 3rd through the 9th, and then September 11th through the 19th is the dates that I would really be watching closest. That's right around the peak of hurricane season as well. So, uh, definitely my big part of the pattern that I'm watching. I don't have vacation days in this window, uh, just to be on the safe side, and, uh, you know, our, our, our staff at at West even teased me yesterday, Jeremy. Because they said, well, that's *** good way to tell when the dates are before we issue our hurricane forecast is when am I not scheduling vacation during the summer. Right, there's usually, um, my birthday is in September and typically there's always *** tropical system somewhere, whether it's headed my way or meandering. Somewhere close enough that I can't really enjoy it. Last year, uh, Helene made landfall on my birthday. Not, not exactly the present I wanted. Love that. All right. From loving that to loving something else, this is *** piece of the weather pattern that started on November 12th-ish. This was *** really Slow moving storm system, OK? This was Raphael, this was one that kind of worked into the Gulf of Mexico, and then just set up shop for *** few days before kind of blending into Louisiana. Yeah, so this, as you mentioned, one thing that really stood out to us is this is *** little bit slower, um, moving low in the Gulf. It was from November 6th to the 12th. It went from Cuba. Into the southern Gulf and then meandered. It was just *** remnant low and then drifted into Louisiana. Uh, we have seen this in other parts of the pattern. Uh, one part it got *** little bit close to the Texas coast, and each time, even though the low has been pretty much just staying over the Gulf and then going to the north, uh, we have noticed some heavier rains kind of do extend into the Texas area. So. You don't have to have landfall right over your area to get impacts from these tropical systems, so we have the area as *** landfall hotspot highlighted, uh, not necessarily saying that impacts can extend out from that. So, uh, slow golf flow, um. We do I think this one has probably *** little higher chance of coming back in some of those time frames we have shown there. Yeah, so again, June 6th through the 13th, that's early hurricane season. So, you know, more than likely I would suspect there to be just some little piece of energy, maybe something that the hurricane center were to circle. We'll have to watch it again in July and then of course, that August to September time frame when. Um, ocean temperatures are the warmest when the Gulf is closing in on its peak, those are definitely things that we will have to, um, pay very close attention to. And I would also be particularly curious if the steering currents were to break down like they have in past cycles, Jeremy, and this ends up just becoming *** massive rainmaker to parts of the um to to the coast. Yeah, this one, probably of all four, was the slowest moving and seemed like it was *** big rainmaker or had the potential to produce some heavy rains. I know it did prompt like *** tornado warning in Louisiana back around the 12th or 13th of November. So this one also the time frames there. are *** little bit longer because this was hanging around for quite *** while, so that's why you see the spread of the dates *** little bit higher with this sort of Raphael part of the pattern. Um, but this one was in, in November and then the next one we talked about was also in November system. But these, again, where did they track? They, they were tracking right into the Gulf and then eventually over land. You see the trend, right? Like there's so many of these lows that are focusing on that Louisiana to like Florida panhandle. This is why um we have had to highlight so much of that uh Gulf coastline, because each one of these major parts of the pattern, Jeremy, just keeps wanting to uh focus on that, and our last one around November 19th, did the exact same thing. Yes, and this was the er part of the pattern. So this moved into Belize, crossed over the Yucatan, headed back into the Gulf. Again, it weakened, it was *** remnant low. I got picked up, turned to the northeast, and I would say of the four features we have highlighted, this one has been the biggest headache in terms of *** severe weather producer that has been one of the biggest impacts with it. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. And again, from about eastern Louisiana through the Florida Big Bend, um, mid June, late July, and into early September. And, you know, as you mentioned that, I and I don't know why I hadn't thought to bring this up before. This is and I'm just, it may take the computer *** few seconds to kind of um load the data because I'm calling an audible here, but this is just *** look from about October 10th for tropical. Systems and their paths. And so you can see there's like Nadine, there's there's Oscar, and and just kind of going through and and I'll just kind of continue. There's there's Rafael just hung out in the Gulf of uh uh Gulf, and then uh there's Sarah that kind of moved, yeah, across the Yucatan and then looped back around. So, you can see just by looking at the name storms, right? Where they went kind of their paths and that sort of thing. And, and one thing I think we should address here, I didn't make it *** huge part of my write up. The Milton and Sarah loosely do overlap *** little bit. Right, yeah, the question is, you know, Milton was so early in the new thing, fit an old pattern and it kind of fits the Sarah pattern, so it's We found in at least our analysis, we found when you when you were comparing them, the upper levels looked *** little bit better versus the surface lineup, um, and Sarah in future cycles, uh, that part of the pattern has been very consistent, um, we just saw it in February again, uh, produced some severe weather, so, uh, not saying it, it can't. Be tied to Milton maybe *** little bit, but uh when we talk about uh one of the methods we use here, one of our ingredients, uh, the new weather pattern gets established, uh, sort of that early part of October. So Milton was in that weird transition, uh, part where we're seeing like old pattern, new pattern, and, um, so we're kind of using our clues. We've seen Sarah 3 times now, uh, well removed from early October, so we're kind of using the best information we have, uh, even if it is tied *** little bit to Milton. I think it would be very close to those dates that we just showed you. And, and, and I think that, you know, the pattern did seem like even if Milton and Sarah were somewhat related in reflection, seemed like it wanted to focus *** little further north as well in the newer parts. So that's why that got shifted just *** little bit. So my friends, there we are, right? There's the uh 2020. 5 hurricane season forecast. There's your hotspots. The East Coast, an average or even perhaps slightly below average threat, but the Gulf Coast, an absolutely above average threat. So, that's uh that's our dissertation. Now, I think it's *** good opportunity to start questions that you may have, um, You know, one question that my anchors asked last uh uh or or or asked me regarding last year, Jeremy, and I thought it was *** really good question was, um, it seems like the hotspots are similar. Does is that kind of, is that kind of *** threat going forward or is it just kind of the luck of the draw, and I think that that was *** really good question to discuss. Yeah, I think, um, maybe *** little bit luck of the draw. I think we'd have to study more like every hurricane season, look at the last 5 years, the last decade, um maybe see if you can pick up any trends on that. We're kind of focused on *** newer pattern each and every year for our analysis for these hurricane season, but it's definitely something to look at, but I mean, overall, I would probably say the Caribbean into the islands and then the Gulf, uh, most hurricane seasons, that's where typically have some of the warmest water, also the main development region. Main development region, uh, obviously, we don't really have hotspots out in the open, uh, Atlantic, but you have *** lot of systems that form there and last year we did see that. It doesn't happen each and every year. Um, but last year we had some that formed there, uh, and then, uh, like Beryl, that one, that was *** long lived storm. Yeah, yeah. Beryl was, and, and it was *** part of the forecast in terms of dates, but again, it took the upper pattern instead of the surface pattern. And I also think you mentioned it, but it's really important to note, like, we cover the continental United States, we are not forecasting for, you know, for Cuba, for Puerto Rico, or for the islands. So understand just because we're not discussing those areas, we have seen. Um, numerous parts of the pattern, you know, Oscar, uh, being *** great example. Cuba, I think, is probably going to, if we were to highlight Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, like, these are areas that absolutely would be hotspots if we included those areas. Yeah, and that's *** good thing to mention. Cuba, Hispaniola, maybe parts of the Bahamas, uh, towards the Turks, those islands over there. I think they really need to watch it this year because we had Oscar and I believe there was like *** potential tropical cyclone maybe that went over in that area and even, um, I think Rafael sort of uh took that track that went somewhere near Caymans and then uh went over that western part of Cuba. So those are. Uh, things to keep in mind, uh, we like to kind of keep our focus on the continental United States, our coastline here, but obviously there's other areas that are going to be prone to uh impacts this season. Yes, OK, so, uh, just got *** question. All right, so Kara Gordon just said, I wish I understood, Sarah and Helene were both storms last season, so understanding why one would be *** part of this year baffles me. So, Kara's new to this, so let's, let's just pause for *** second. Let's go back to the basics. All right. So Kara, I'm talking to you, my dear. This is We use *** lot of methodology when it comes to this long range forecasting, and one of the ideas you could call it *** teleconnection of sorts. You could kind of look at it as looking back, learning to look to the future. So essentially, there's ***, there's *** principle um found among several meteorologists. Gary Leezak is *** uh is *** meteorologist out in the plains, and he basically found that *** long term weather pattern sets up, OK? About October 10th, and Jeremy, we could, we could, you know, chat about just why it's October 10th-ish, and, and, you know, is it, is it the sun setting in the Arctic? Is it just, you know, when the aliens discovered the, you know, whatever, I don't know. But the idea is around October 10th, this new long weather pattern sets up and then it loops over and over. It's not perfect, it's not exact. But it gives you clues, and if you observe this long weather pattern, look at where storms go, look at where severe weather goes, um, and then zero in on how long it takes for it to recycle. Once you get that duration, that cycle duration, then it gives you clues into the future and, and, and I'm explaining it. The joke is Jeremy taught it to me. So Jeremy, how did I do and do you have anything to add? No, I think you did great, so that that. Kind of early part of October, it's always *** tricky part is something new, is something old, and I think uh one of the big things with Milton that we thought it looked *** little more old versus new was how much severe weather was in Florida because that was such *** key part in previous cycles with Milton was Florida's severe weather. So that kind of tipped the scales *** little bit in that direction. Again, we can't say with *** 100% certainty that earlyish part of October, what, what. is exactly old and what's new, but we've had enough looks at the part of the pattern that is what we term Sarah that we're pretty confident in what we, what we put out there. So Kenneth asked, and I think Kenneth on YouTube asked this question. I think there's *** super great question. He said, any further thoughts on the system last week that brought Central and South Florida all the rain and was that feature taken into consideration for this forecast? The answer is absolutely it was. Yeah, so we think that was probably tied to right around about October 26th or so. So that was shown in our discussion. It was termed, uh, on Eric there like the golf low. Um, that one, yeah, that one has meandered *** little bit. It's been sort of *** western or central, um, golf low rough, and then, um, that time around it was *** little bit more of *** eastern golf. Yeah, so yes, it has. And, and I would add too, now this is one thing that we're we're always gonna be very and and by the way, you know, Jeremy and I try to be 11000% transparent. We went into this hurricane forecast with the idea that we've been dropping nuggets to our, to our, to our folks that listen and and pay attention. So like, I don't think that that my coffee talk crew should be super surprised by this, right? I would imagine. Your folks as well, um, but the one thing that we will always say, we're going to be transparent with, with the, the winds, the losses and all that, um, but going into hurricane season, so we do not, we do not update like our forecasts, like these are going to be our hotspots, that's not going to change. We don't change our um numbers for name storms, but we may. Like right around June 1st, if need be, we may make one tweak if there is *** need for changing the dates. Would you, would you agree? Like one opportunity, yeah, and, and when we say change the dates, it's not like we're gonna come up with *** brand new set of dates. It would be like, oh, we just, because what will happen is on the like on the sheet I have right here, I've written down all the dates, all the information. And like for what, what part of the pattern did you just have up to 26? I had the, I mean, I had the um the October 26th. So I mean we see it in early April and then it comes around again, uh, should be around mid-May. So that is two more cycles of information that will help us fine-tune if we need to like shift the date around by like *** day or so, but. Again, if, if we did that, that would all be before can season begins, but, uh, hotspots, uh, have never changed. Our numbers don't change. It's, uh, here's our forecast and we'll see how it plays out. And last year, our, our forecast, we were extremely happy with how the numbers, uh, turned out, and that was issued on March the first. So, uh, another thing that I like is I'm not seeing other forecasts to sort of, um. Basically skew SKU numbers, uh, I sometimes say like pollute my thinking. I'd rather if I'm going to be wrong, I would rather it be on me, not on all of *** sudden I saw this other forecast and then that starts influencing um what we're thinking about. Well, and I, I love to And it's usually this way, right? But I love that um you and I did our forecasts completely separate, and they were, they were, you know, synergistic to to to the nth degree. I think that that our, our, um, obviously we use the same methodology, right? I mean, you taught me Obi-Wan and Darth Vader over here. But, but, you know, when, when you look at it, it's nice to know. that, yeah, we're going to win or we're going to lose on our own merit. There's no external forces and as the other, now last year is *** good example, we issued our forecast, which was above average. Everybody else was issuing these mega high numbers, and we're like, we OK? And we just sat and rode the, you know, we, we rode the wave, win, lose or draw. So, you know. We win or lose on our own, on our own accord. One thing, if you have *** chance, can you pull up uh the Sarah part of the pattern and it's something I just want to mention from my area. We've seen so many of these like Northern Gulf um type systems so impacts could um definitely make their way into parts of the south or southeast including. Into my area if we have um like *** landfalling system that goes in that direction, that's what we saw with Debbie that's what we saw with Helene last year. So even though my coastline may not see *** direct landfall coming in from like an easterly direction. Impacts can still reach our area and be pretty significant, um depending on the storm the strength and the exact track it takes. So I always tell people don't let your guard down if you're not in *** hotspot, impacts can still reach you. Yeah, 100%. Um, carbon fiber on YouTube asking why have most of our recent impactful storms come from the Gulf and Caribbean and not the Atlantic. It's just, I think it's just the long form atmospheric pattern that we've been in, and that's going to continue this year as well. Yeah, I think, yeah, I definitely think that it probably will with the pattern we have set up, the storm systems we highlighted and uh kind of our thinking for this year. So my web article is up and I did see that our Wes to. Web staff was posting links to it in my video link, uh, in my video feed, and Jeremy, I'm sure uh you can get those posts as well. But essentially, for me, and I can show you how to do this too, Jeremy, but if you go to Wes.com/hurricane forecaster, it's actually it's on the Wes website, just west.com right now. But if you go to Wes.com, And click on it says West 22025 hurricane season forecast. It's got my uh my mediocre looking face smile in there, but we need to get, we need to also, uh, make sure that for Jeremy's audience, WJCL.com, your web article will be posted and, uh, everything you need to know will be there. Yeah, uh, my web article is, uh, up there, and I've been dropping it into the comments as well. All right, so, uh, let's see here, just *** couple of other questions. Uh, let's see, it's hard, it's hard to pinpoint this far out exactly where the storm will hit. Well, Sonia, we, we, we at least have *** broad stroke idea, and I think that we're, we're absolutely showing that last year, 85% accuracy rate with our hotspots both in time and in uh location. So there's that. Nikki's also asking, let's see here, homegrown systems compared. The long track main development region systems, you know, if it stays far enough south from the main development region to sneak into the Gulf, sure. But, you know, there have been *** few areas east of the United States, particularly like east of Florida around the Bahamas, but none of them have gotten right up to the shoreline, which makes me think that they would want to recurve if they do so this year. Yeah, and uh, so in all the ingredients we look at, and we also look at analogs, so. With the method we use, we're sort of using analogs within the within the last six months or so. Some people use analogs from like 1930s, 1910, 1950s, something like that, which if it works for them, that is great. So the analog we looked at *** little bit was 2017, and that year definitely had some hurricanes of note. I believe that was Irma and did we say Harvey was that year? yep. So. And what was, you know, going even further, like Harvey was such *** slow moving system, right? So like there's, you know, there's another threat of if *** system loses its forward motion, what could happen? And that's my concern for um for that Sarah part of the pattern, right? something heading toward Louisiana that would be *** very slow mover. So there you go, there's our 2025 forecast. you have anything else to add, Jeremy? No, I don't think so. Um, we'll just get everything posted and then we will, um, maybe we'll do another update here in the next, uh, couple of weeks if we start getting *** lot of questions. And if we see any anything more developed, but we have *** pretty solid like 2 more um cycles to get through, so we'll, we'll be gathering more information and we'll, we'll keep everyone updated. Now 100%. So once again, just to review, the Gulf is the hotspot. The entire Gulf, we've essentially got highlighted. South Florida, like the, the, the tip for for several. areas, but yes, definitely watching the Gulf and in terms of numbers, um, we're looking to be again on ***, on *** decent, on *** decently active season. We're not going hyper mega super active, but, uh, you know, above average definitely looks to be the, the notion here, especially as we go to more of *** neutral and so pattern. So 16 to 20 storms, 8. To 10 hurricanes and 4 to 6 major hurricanes. West.com, WJCL.com on the home pages you can find the full meteorological write-ups that Jeremy and I spent time working on. And of course, I would say look at both of them. Look at Eric's, look at mine because um we add different thoughts in for our own regions. So please uh check out both of them. Uh, hopefully that'll fill in any uh blanks. It'll answer all your questions. Yeah, I like it. And of course your emails on your article, my emails on mine, ask questions and uh one other thing, Jeremy and I don't just co-author this hurricane forecast on. On Tuesdays during hurricane season, we do this exact same thing, just talking about the tropics, and we incorporate our long range forecasting into model data. So it's one of those things. It's appointment television on your computer, 10 a.m. tracking the tropics Tuesdays. Yeah, uh, and we'll be there for you the entire Atlantic hurricane season. So hopefully you enjoyed our forecast. Uh, please, please share it with some of your friends and family. We know that, uh, the next 6 weeks, there's gonna be all kinds of hurricane season forecast. and if you could at least put ours in the mix that you look at, share with friends and family, that's greatly appreciated. Very good. All right, well, listen, thank you all for joining from beautiful, quiet tropically Central Florida. I'm West to meteorologist Eric Burress. And in from the from the hostess city, Savannah, Georgia, I'm WJCL 22 chief meteorologist Jeremy Nelson. Jeremy, another forecast done, my friend. All right. Take care.