By: Professor Douglas BOATENG
In the contemporary geopolitical landscape, warfare is no longer characterised by the cacophony of gunfire or the visible presence of soldiers. Instead, it manifests through trade bulletins and tariff declarations.
Economic confrontations are redefining international relationships, disrupting supply chains, and jeopardising livelihoods, particularly for developing economies striving for access to global markets.
This phenomenon is not ephemeral; the current wave of tariffs signifies a sustained and strategic transformation. The global trading system is undergoing a fundamental reconfiguration.
Supply chains, which took decades to establish, are currently being altered. Analysts project that this transformation may require approximately five to seven years to achieve stabilisation, contingent upon the continuity of steady global political conditions
Having dedicated decades to industrialisation initiatives, manufacturing systems, and industrial development, I appreciate and understand this complexity. Relocating a factory is not the same as moving an office.
It necessitates stable governance, skilled labour, coordinated logistics, and supportive infrastructure. Oversimplifying this process is not just naïve; it is a strategic error.
A costly turn toward nationalism
Trade nationalism is on the rise. The United States, long a pillar of global trade integration, has shifted its posture dramatically. In April 2025, it imposed a 10percent baseline tariff on all imports. However, some nations, including key African economies, are facing elevated rates.
South Africa’s exports, for instance, are now subject to a 30percent tariff, effectively dismantling the duty-free access previously granted under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
In 2024, South Africa exported over US$14 billion worth of goods to the U.S., including automobiles, agriculture, textiles, and wine. The new tariffs introduce steep costs for both exporters and U.S. consumers. Often, the consumer becomes the silent casualty.
Inflation, the invisible tax, eats away at households while boardrooms debate strategy. Every tariff carries a price tag, but it is the everyday person who unknowingly foots the bill.
Automotive sector: a success story threatened
South Africa’s automotive exports to the U.S. exceeded US$2 billion in 2024. Under AGOA, these shipments enjoyed duty-free treatment. The newly introduced 25percent tariff on foreign-made cars has swiftly erased this competitive edge.
South Africa’s share of U.S. auto imports remains under 1percent, yet it faces punitive measures similar to global heavyweights.
Industry leaders warn that this change puts thousands of jobs at risk and jeopardises investments tied to U.S. demand. If you punish the diligent for crimes they did not commit, don’t expect excellence to endure.
South African officials are actively engaging with U.S. counterparts in hopes of reversing or mitigating the blow. But as things stand, the sector faces an uphill battle.
Clothing and textiles: fragile threads unravelling
Textile exports from Lesotho, Madagascar, Kenya, and others have long benefited from AGOA’s preferential framework. In 2022, African apparel exports to the U.S. totalled US$1.4 billion.
These industries are job-intensive and heavily reliant on global orders. The new tariff regime now subjects some countries to shocking increases: Lesotho faces a 60percent rate, Madagascar 47percent, and Botswana 37percent. Even Kenya, previously seen as a strategic partner, faces a 20percent duty.
The results are immediate and unforgiving. Factories are scaling back, orders are being cancelled, and families are feeling the impact. Ethiopia’s experience is a stark warning.
When AGOA access was revoked in 2022, apparel exports to the U.S. dropped by 42percent within months, and over 11,000 jobs were lost.
When trade winds shift without warning, those without anchors are swept away. Without meaningful dialogue and policy reconsideration, Lesotho and others may find themselves in similar peril.
Agriculture and wine: quiet strengths, loud consequences
Agricultural exports form a crucial part of Africa’s trade with the U.S. In 2022, South African agricultural exports to the U.S. were valued at $622 million. Nearly 72percent entered duty-free under AGOA. Now, a 30percent tariff applies across the board, affecting citrus, grapes, nuts, and processed food products.
Wine exports are among the most vulnerable. South Africa shipped over 10 million litres of wine to the U.S. in one year, with the market ranking among its top five destinations. A 30percent duty now makes South African wine less competitive, particularly against wines from Chile and Argentina, which face just 10percent.
The roots of Africa’s vineyards are deep, but tariffs have begun to poison the harvest. This shift could reverse gains in high-value exports and discourage smaller producers who had only just begun tapping into global markets.
Ghana: momentum interrupted
Ghana has not escaped the tariff wave. The United States has imposed a 10percent tariff on Ghanaian exports, impacting critical sectors like cocoa, apparel, and agriculture. For a country focused on value addition and industrialisation, this development creates friction at a sensitive juncture in its export strategy.
Ghana’s exporters now face higher entry costs into a vital market, just as they were moving up the value chain. The cocoa sector, in particular, where Ghana has sought to export processed goods like butter and powder, now faces a price disadvantage.
Nigeria: The heavyweight hit quietly
Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, has been assigned a 14percent tariff rate. Its exports of textiles, cocoa derivatives, and cashew products are affected. Though oil remains largely exempt, these new duties create challenges for its non-oil export agenda.
For a nation struggling with foreign exchange pressure, even minor export disruptions carry outsized effects. When giants stumble, the earth shakes around them.
And when the mighty lose momentum, the margins feel the tremor. Nigeria’s trade authorities have acknowledged the tariff’s impact and are quietly exploring trade recalibration and diversification strategies.
Africa’s place in the trade order
Despite the scope of its natural and human resources, Africa remains more of a chessboard than a player in global trade.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was conceived to address this to unify the continent into one powerful bloc. Yet, years on, progress remains patchy. Border delays, digital gaps, visa restrictions, and fragmented infrastructure slow the dream of integration.
The same policymakers who give grand speeches on Pan-Africanism too often author policies that divide. Leadership without boldness is like a map with no roads. It points to destiny but leads nowhere.
Africa is not short of vision. It is short of courageous execution. Until ministers become messengers of impact rather than gatekeepers of excuses, no amount of strategy will yield transformation. If we cannot trade easily among ourselves, we should not be surprised when the world trades easily without us.
An opening hidden in the chaos
Still, within this confusion lies opportunity. As global manufacturers seek new supply chains, Africa can present itself as a practical alternative.
The continent has land, resources, and a young, dynamic workforce. But it must also provide power, stability, logistics, and policy clarity. Africa needs not more declarations but demonstrable action. We must build industrial corridors, upgrade port efficiency, harmonise regulations, and invest in skills.
If others turn inward, Africa must turn to itself. We do not need new slogans. We need working systems, roads, rails, regulations, and results. The future will not wait for Africa to finalise one more memorandum. It will pass by unless we are ready to move.
Conclusion: seize the storm, shape the story
This global tariff escalation is more than a policy shift. It is a defining moment. Africa can either react in fragmented silence or rise in purposeful solidarity.
- The time to debate is ending. The time to build has come!
- Let others build walls. Let Africa unite and build ecosystems!
- Let others weaponise trade. Let Africa industrialise!
- Let others retreat into fear. Let Africa rise to purpose!
We have the resources, the people, the market, and even the blueprints. Now, we must summon the courage to execute. Africa first, Africa forward. The future does not wait; it favours those bold enough to build it.
>>>the writer is a globally celebrated thought leader, Chartered Director, industrial engineer, supply chain management expert, and social entrepreneur known for his transformative contributions to industrialisation, procurement, and strategic sourcing in developing nations.
As Africa’s first Professor Extraordinaire for Supply Chain Governance and Industrialization, he has advised governments, businesses, and policymakers, driving sustainability and growth. During his tenure as Chairman of the Minerals Income Investment Fund (MIIF) and Labadi Beach Hotel, he led these institutions to global recognition for innovation and operational excellence. He is also the past chairman of the Public Procurement Authority.
A prolific author of over 90 publications, he is the creator of NyansaKasa (Words of Wisdom), a thought-provoking platform with over one million daily readers. Through his visionary leadership, Professor Boateng continues to inspire ethical governance, innovation, and youth empowerment, driving Africa toward a sustainable and inclusive future.