ANALYSIS: Who will win France's next presidential election?

In France parliamentary and presidential elections are held separately - the chaotic situation in parliament means that fresh parliamentary elections are likely to be held sooner, but presidential elections normally take place on a regular cycle.

At this stage there's only one thing that we know for sure about the candidates - Emmanuel Macron will not be among them. The French constitution limits presidents to two consecutive terms; Macron - elected in 2017 and re-elected in 2022 - could theoretically stand in 2032, but he cannot stand in 2027.

This, combined with the five-year ban on holding office for far-right leader Marine Le Pen, has thrown the race wide open.

You can hear the team at The Local discussing the elections with politics expert John Lichfield in the latest episode of the Talking France podcast. Listen here or on the link below

Here's a look at the declared and likely candidates;

The centre 

Because of the two consecutive terms rule it has always been clear that Macron cannot stand in 2027, and some centrist candidates have been planning their bids for some time.

Chief among these is Macron's former prime minister Edouard Philippe. Since being sacked as PM in 2020 (its widely rumoured for the crime of being more popular than his boss), he hasn’t held a political position on the national stage - although he is mayor of Le Havre - but he has created his own centrist party, Horizons, with the apparent aim of running for president.

Philippe remains popular with the French public, consistently topping polls of most popular politicians.

Macron's current prime minister François Bayrou is also believed to be considering a fourth presidential bid. Bayrou is not a member of Macron's party - he was in fact a centrist before Macron - and has stood for election in 2002, 2007 and 2012, never doing better than third place.

Within Macron's own party there are likely to be several candidates, including Gabriel Attal - a 36-year-old Macron protégé who became France's first out gay prime minister in 2024.

Attal held a meeting in Saint-Denis last weekend, promising a ‘foretaste’ of his presidential campaign, although it didn’t get into any specific policies. He was especially outspoken over the Le Pen verdict, telling supporters at that meeting "if you steal, you pay". Like Philippe, Attal is popular and consistently polls well with the public, despite his close ties to the unpopular president.

Justice minister Gérald Darmanin, a Macronist to the right of the party and a noted hardliner on immigration, is also understood to be considering a bid.

One interesting aspect is how Macron's party will choose its candidate - Macron himself created the LREM movement in 2016 and since then he has been the party's only presidential candidate. There is therefore no precedent for how the party picks a candidate - whether it will have primaries or rely on an internal selection by party chiefs. 

The far right 

Until last week, Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen was the only person who had formally declared her candidacy. However her plans were thrown into disarray when the judges in her embezzlement case imposed a five-year ban on standing for public office - effective immediately.

She is still trying to overturn that via the appeals court and an appeal to the Conseil Constitutionnel, but it's far from certain whether she will succeed. If she fails, it's probable that her deputy, 29-year-old Jordan Bardella, will stand as the RN candidate. Some analysts believe that he might actually have a better chance in the polls, but Le Pen herself is quoted as saying he is "not ready".

The polemicist-turned-politician Eric Zemmour, who stood in the 2022 elections, is also understood to be considering a second run at the presidency, while Marine's niece Marion Maréchal is also considered a possible candidate for Zemmour's extreme right Reconquête party.

The left 

The left has no shortage of candidates, but a big question is whether there will be a candidate of the 'united left' or not.

The 2022 presidential elections saw six leftist candidates, none of whom advanced beyond the first round, but since then the four main parties of the left - the centre-left Parti Socialiste, the Greens, the Communists and the hard left La France Insoumise - have been in various coalitions or parliamentary groupings, mostly under the leadership of LFI boss Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Mélenchon himself is understood to be considering a fourth bid, but there are other candidates for a 'united left' candidate.

These include the journalist-turned-MP François Ruffin who last weekend put himself forward as a candidate for a combined left bid - the 49-year-old native of north-east France has continued his career as a documentary film-maker since entering parliament, his 2024 film Au Boulot focused on the minimum wage and gig economy workers of France.

Raphael Glucksmann - the centre-left candidate in the most recent European elections - is also understood to be considering a bid in the hopes of uniting the left.

This week, Philippe Poutou - who has stood three times on a Trotskyist ticket, never getting more than one percent of the vote, announced that he would not stand in 2027 and is instead opening a bookshop in Bordeaux. However his fellow Trotskyist election candidate Nathalie Arthaud may stand again. 

It's also unclear whether the Communist party would field its own candidate - likely party leader Fabien Roussel - or would be part of a united left grouping.

Right wing 

There's also what is left of the old centre-right Les Républicains party - the party of ex presidents including Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac, but these days much reduced electorally and lurching sharply to the right.

The former LR senator, currently serving in François Bayour's government as interior minister, Bruno Retailleau is understood to be considering a bid.

Other likely candidates within the party include MP Laurent Wauquiez and the president of the northern French Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand.